Ukraine: long term implications
Nick at A Fistful of Euros has an interesting article up about what the Ukraine crisis could mean for the EU a couple of decades from now.
I have a feeling that the Ukrainian crisis may, when we look back at it from ten or twenty years down the line, turn out to be one of those crucial turning points for the EU. Its not just in terms of the Europe-Russia-US geopolitics that have been discussed quite extensively over the last two weeks, but its also important in the EUs image of itself. Its reiterated the idea that the countries of the former Eastern Bloc want to join the EU, that it has what Kagan calls the power of the attraction
Ukraine could become a major turning point for Russia too, because many of the very countries that the EU will want to attract are ones that Russia is trying desperately to keep within its sphere of influence.
If Ukraine one day becomes a candidate for EU membership, then who is to say that Moldova won’t follow? Or Georgia? And beyond those two? Belarus? Azerbaijan? Armenia?
Where does this leave Russia’s policy toward its neighbours? Will there come a point when Moscow decides it’s interests would be best served by the old adage of "if you can’t beat ’em, join ’em"?