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July 17th, 2010Does Ukraine hold the key to Russia's future?
November 14th, 2008
The MIT World Policy Journal is celebrating its 25th anniversary by making access to its Fall 2008 journal for free until the end of November.
The 25th anniversary issue looks ahead to the next 25 years and, in Russia’s Rotting Empire, Nina L Khrushcheva (yes – before you ask – she’s Nikita Kruschev’s great-granddaughter) has penned a look at Russia’s next quarter century.
It’s an interesting article overall, but there were two things I found particularly interesting.
First – Khrushcheva’s view that political change in Russia is cyclical:
“…periods of ‘remission’ (a retreat from total dictatorship) or reforms, and periods of ‘oppression’ or stability have alternated consistently in the last century…”
I do agree, but wonder – if we accept that Russia is in the early stages of a period of “oppression”, how deep will it go, and how long will it be before the next about turn that leads towards reform. Are we in for many more years of sliding towards authoritarianism and a strong Russian state, or will the more frantic pace of globalisation speed up the Russian political cycle?
The second point, which I found intriguing given the disdain with which many Russians view Ukraine (and the fact that Khrushchev was a Ukrainian), was Khrushcheva’s argument that Ukraine could hold the key to Russia’s future.
“Russians know that Ukrainians are the same as them, a people similar in their culture and mentality. If they have made their choice, why can’t we do the same? Thus, if Ukraine succeeds over the next 25 years, it may herald the political death of Putinism.
[...]The best way to help Russia today is to help Ukraine over the coming decades support its claim that it belongs within the European fold, among European institutions.”
Ukraine is at a bit of a cross roads at the moment, and seems like it could go either way. It is clearly an ideal target for both European / US and Russian foreign policy, and I’d imagine it’s going to be a hell of a cultural and political battleground in the coming years. But I have no idea what direction Ukraine will take.
What do you think? Who will come out on top in Ukraine? Will the next couple of years in Kiev set the tone for the next couple of decades in Moscow?
What if the Romanovs had been restored?
November 12th, 2008Martin Gilbert, writing in the Times, imagines an entirely different end to the First World War:
Imagine: in October 1918, Lloyd George’s Cabinet is planning for a prolonged struggle in 1919. Haig’s solution promises to avoid a confrontation even bloodier than the Somme or Passchendaele. The Government agrees. Germany’s main condition is to keep the vast swath of Russia that her troops have occupied since the Bolshevik revolution and the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk in March.
With peace made with Germany on Haig’s terms by mid-October, the British troops already in Russia have a German ally to help them to crush what Churchill calls “the foul baboonery of Bolshevism”.
Gilbert goes on to observe that Germany would probably still start a second war at some stage – probably with France, because there would be no Polish and Czechosolvak states for Germany to expand into. And, rather hopefully, he suggests that a newly restored Imperial Russia would repay its war debts to Britain, allowing Britain to build a postwar build a postwar cuontry “fit for heroes”.
But nothing about how a restored Romanov dynasty would survive in the new-old Russia.
So, I thought I’d throw a few thoughts – questions really – of my own out there.
Let’s imagine that an Immperial Romanov Dynasty has retained control of the Kremlin with the help of a motley alliance of Russian Whites, and British and German troops. How widely would they be accepted by the Russian public, two years after a pair of revolutions, and at the end of a brief civil war?
On the plus side, they’d presumably have physical control of the apparatus of state, and be backed by foreign money and troops if necessary in the short term. If they could bring some measure of stability, they would presumably be able to count of some gratitude from the public at large.
But, on the down side, they’d be trying to re-establish the divine right of the Romanovs to rule over a people that had experienced (albiet not very succesfully) self rule. The Bolsheviks might have been vanquished, but left-leaning opposition groups would presumably still exist and have at least some measure of support among the people. And how many of the middle classes would have been inspired by the prospect of Kerensky’s failed provisional government?
Also – how would the Americans influence the new-old Russia? If the United States had been able to play a significant role, wouldn’t they have insisted on some pretty significant democratic reforms in Russia? Or would they have been marginalised by an Anglo-German axis?
Being so reliant on British and German support would also post real problems for the Russian government. Britain especially would want Russia to repay its debts, which would be a strain on the public finances – not entirely desirable in a country shattered by years of brutal warfare. If political favours are also asked of Russia, would this reduce the government to a puppet in the eyes of its people?
Lots of questions, I know. Anyone want to take a stab at answering some of them in the comments below?
Two news stories that caught my eye
November 11th, 2008These two news stories from Johnson’s Russia list yesterday caught my eye.
Medvedev speaks Russian!
Firstly, President Medvedev is finally going to start talking to the Russian press. Apparently he’s only really been talking to the foreign press so far:
In late November, as Nezavisimaya Gazeta has found out, Russian head of state Dmitriy Medvedev will conduct his first meeting with Russian journalists since his election. Thus far, the president has only given extended interviews to Western press representatives. In March, for example, Medvedev talked with journalists of The Financial Times newspaper.
In August, the president answered questions by journalists of France’s TF-1, the BBC of Great Britain, and the Qatari channel Al-Jazeera, and in September the Russian leader gave an interview to a Euronews correspondent.
{…} For the first time in recent years, voters may ultimately not have an opportunity in 2008 to ask questions to the new head of state.
(The above extract came from Nezavisimaya Gazeta’s 7 November 2008 edition, via Johnson’s Russia List #205)
Not particularly good for building the kind of reputation that normally gets Presidents re-elected. Or for quashing conspiracy theories that you’re only in the job to (a) get Putin out of a constitutional hole and (b) present a friendlier, more liberal, face to the West.
New Political Party with daftest idea ever.
Boris Nemtsov and Garry Kasparov are to set up a new political party, called Solidarity has been set up. According to RIA Novosti:
[Solidarity] has defined its main goal as defending the invariability of the Russian constitution”.
(From the same edition of JRL – New opposition democratic movement being set up in Russia – RIA-Novosti)
Talk about anti-democratic. Constitutions are living documents, and must have a mechanism somewhere to allow them to be amended to reflect new political realities. Yes, constitutions should be hard to change, but they must have some mechanism for change. Otherwise, we live in the past.
Update: Rather depressingly, it looks like this was a typo. Really, RIA Novosti meant to say “inviolability”. I prefered the earlier version – it gave me a much better opportunity to rant. ”Inviolability” is just boring. Everyone would agree that the constitution is invoilable – even Putin.
Russia Blog Roundup – 10 November
November 10th, 2008Before I kick off this week’s (or, rather, last week’s – sorry, running a bit behind!) roundup of the best blog posts about Russia, I just wanted to remind you that I launched a new website this week:
Russian News Online pulls together all of the top headlines from all of the top Russia news sources onto one simple page – from the Moscow Times to the New York Times. And, as a special bonus, page 2 of the site collates all of the headlines from all of the top Russia blogs.
I hope you find Russian News Online useful. If you do – then please tell others. If you don’t – then please tell me, as I’d really appreciate the feedback!
Blog Roundup
Now, on with the blog posts:
- First up, the President of Russia has the English translation of a new Russian film about the war in Georgia – “War 08.08.08 or the art of treachery”. I’m still working my way through the film but, as you’d expect, it’s packed with more propaganda that an old Soviet poster. There are a few interesting bits, too, though – well worth a watch. (If you speak Russian, you can see the original version of ????? 08.08.08 on Russia.ru).
- Dmitry Medvedev’s video blogs continue apace – he’s onto his third now. If you are one of those who think he is just a puppet of Putin, think again – Medvedev has sold his soul to Apple Computers.
- Putin, by the way, is catching up with his more techno-literate President. He’s just launched the 100% Unofficial Blog of the Prime Minister of Russia. Welcome to the fold, VVP!
- Two picture posts of Russian Halloween celebrations from Moscow Doesn’t Believe in Tears and Two Zero’s Diary.
- The Russian Navy Blog brings you (possibly) the last word on the Battle of the Black Sea.
- Hare Krishna’s in the former capital of Bolshevism. The Eagle and the Bear visits a Moscow temple for a spot of singing and some coconut baked goods. Alec has posted video proof of the singing but, sadly, no proof of the baked goods.
- Scraps of Moscow covers the latest Russian protest march: “It’s the type of thing that could make
athe last Russian liberal’s head explode. Nazi-saluting morons getting beaten by cops while marching on the Arbat. Cops stomping on the Russian flag.” - Blabrmouth considers oligarch bailouts, and just what can be done in a Moscow minute.
- Russia has the first cyrillic top level domain – .??. Wonder if Siberianlight.?? is still available?
- Two perspectives on Medvevev’s first state of the nation speech from Mmd Russia Blog: Fist the domestic view, then the foreign policy view.
- Did you know Lenin dotted all his i’s – even the capitals?
- This week’s Word of the week is -????? ?????.
- Sean Paul at the Agonist thinks we’re in the middle of Russia’s Dead Cat Bounce.
Well, that’s about it for this week. Oh, just one thing before I go – did you know there’s a Reindeer Husbandry blog? Visit for all the lastest Russian reindeer husbandry news!
Introducing my new website: Russian News Online
November 5th, 2008I don’t know about you, but I find it a really difficult to keep up with all the news and blogs about Russia.
What I really need is one page that I can visit once every morning, while I’m drinking my coffee, where I can see at a glance what dozens of online newspapers are writing about Russia. Oh, and it’d be nice to have another page exactly the same where I can check out all the Russia blogs.
I couldn’t find a site that did what I wanted (Alltop:Russia is ok, but only has a few sites), so I decided to make my own… Russian News Online.
Russian News Online is a really simple site.
There are only really two pages. The Russian News page displays the latest headlines from each of the top English language news sites covering Russia. The Russian Blogs page displays the latest post from each of the top English language blogs about Russia.
Once you see an article you like, you click on the headline, and you’re taken to the original article.
That’s pretty much it.
(OK, there’s a little bit more. I’ve added pictures and video news too. If you click on a video, you can play it right there in the site, rather than having to go off to Youtube.)
The site is a bit rough around the edges at the moment – as you can see, design really isn’t my strong suit – and because it pulls news from so many different places, it can be a bit slow to load at times. But I’d really value any feedback about whether there are any news sources / blogs I’m missing, and whether anything doesn’t work properly.
If you find Russian News Online useful, please bookmark it, and tell others about it.
Medvedev's speech – world misses point
November 5th, 2008
Dmitry Medvedev gives his first annual state of the nation speech, and announces that he’d like to extend the Russian Presidential term from 4 to 6 years. So what does the world’s press write about?
That Russia plans to deploy missiles close to the EU’s border to neutralise the US missile shield. Oh, and that Russia blames America for the war in Georgia.
I know plans for constitutional reform aren’t as sexy as phallic lumps of metal, but I’m baffled at how the world’s media can so spectacularly miss the importance of this. Especially on today, the day that US Presidential politics is reinvigorated by Obama’s election. Sureyly it doesn’t take much imagination for a journalist to draw some parallels between a US democracy that’s on the up, and a Russian democracy that’s on the way down.
How Medvedev’s plan to extend the Russian Presidency from a 4 to a 6 year term could be anything but bad news for Russian democracy is a mystery to me. Seriously – what actual benefits would a six year long Presidency bring over a four year long Presidency? None.
The only reason for doing this is to reduce the need for elections.
Oh, and possibly to ensure that Putin has the option to serve 12 more years as President, if he wants to.
Looking on the bright side though, Medvedev did also announce plans to reduce the threshold for entry into Russia’s parliament from the current 7%. I hope this will go some way towards re-energising Russian politics, but the cynic in me wonders if this is just a devious plan to give small parties like Yabloko an incentive to stay small and squabbling, rather than to see sense and merge.
Half a Million visitors
November 4th, 2008Earlier this morning, Siberian Light recorded it 500,000th visitor.
I never imagined, when I started Siberian Light on a whim in early 2004, that Siberian Light would turn out to be quite so popular.
It’s been fascinating experience writing at Siberian Light, and watching Russia slowly change (largely for the worse) over the course of five turbulent years.
The best part of blogging about Russia, though, has been the opportunity to get to know so many knowledgeable, interesting and thoughtful people, through the comments and through email. Without your contributions, Siberian Light wouldn’t be half the blog it is today.
Next target – a million by Christmas 2009… 
Julia Pirie – An Unlikely Spy
November 3rd, 2008As the latest James Bond film is released, the obituary of Julia Pirie provides a timely reminder that the business of espionage is not all glamour:
Julia Pirie, who has died aged 90, spent two decades as an MI5 agent at the heart of the Communist Party of Great Britain, most of it as personal assistant to the party’s general secretary.
A small, dumpy woman with the appearance of a confirmed and rather matronly spinster, Julia Pirie was the most unlikely of spies.
Given her position as personal assistant to the general secretary, John Gollan, it seems highly likely that one of Julia Pirie’s earliest coups was to provide information that allowed MI5 to obtain the entire secret membership of the party. Selected members of the party were told to keep their membership secret so that they could be used by the KGB or Soviet military intelligence (the GRU) in operations in Britain.
The best bit?
Until her death on September 2 Julia Pirie continued to receive her pension from the Communist Party, paid monthly into her account from a bank in Italy.
Russia Blog Roundup – 1 November
November 1st, 2008Welcome to this week’s roundup. Without further ado, here’s my pick of this week’s blog posts about Russia:
- This week saw Komsomol’s 90th anniversary and everyone’s been writing about it. Sean’s Russia Blog has been covering the week’s celebrations here and here. De Rebus tells of his lucky escape from the clutches of his local Komsomol. Lyndon, who has just made a welcome return to blogging over at Scraps of Moscow, also links to an article about Nashi, today’s youth organisation.
- Talking of celebrations – it was Halloween yesterday. Da Russophile has put together his own Halloween special editorial – Russia of the Dead, which is “possibly the most in-depth exploration of zombie infestation scenarios in that region and a comparative analysis with other countries.”
- Global Voices Online reports on the online petition to pardon Svetlana Bakhmina, “a former senior lawyer for Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s oil company Yukos, who was arrested in December 2004 and sentenced to 6 1/2 years in prison for embezzlement and tax evasion in April 2006.” So far, the petition has gathered an impressive 76,787 signatures.
- By the way, Global Voice’s Online’s Rising Voices project has been nominated for Best Weblog at the Deutsche Welle BOB awards. So has Metro Dream, by Russos. You can cast your vote for best weblog here – don’t forget to scroll down the page to vote for the Best Russian Language Weblog, too.
- In a raw, emotional post, Peter Lavelle writes about his anger and frustration that it has taken so long for the BBC’s recent report about Georgian war crimes in South Ossetia to emerge. “The BBC report was painful for me to watch. I felt as if I was being told for the first time in my life that the sun rises in the east and sets in the west – and all to make me feel I was being exposed to secret knowledge.”
- The Streetwise Professor would like it to be known that he is not in league with La Russophobe in “a vast anti-Russian conspiracy. [...] And, to my disappointment, there’ve been no PayPal alerts telling me that money has been sent to me from shadowy sources to compensate me for my work for the conspiracy. Guess I’ll have to try harder.”
- Stephen Lock at Mmd Russia Blog speculates as to why Dmitry Medvedev’s first annual address to the Federal Assembly is scheduled for 5 November, when the world media’s attention will surely be focused on the preceding day’s US Presidential election. Devaluation, anyone? In the same post, Stephen also reports on a meeting with the CEO of a major Russian bank, who made some fascinating predictions about how the Kremlin may use the economic crisis as an opportunity to rationalise Russia’s banking industry. “The Central Bank doesn’t want the 1,200 or so current licensed banks in Russia and would like that to fall fast to around 200-300 regulated institutions.”
- Admiral, a biopic of Admiral Alexander Kolchak, one of the White Russian leaders during the Civil War, has been a massive hit in movie theatres across Russia. Alec, at The Eagle and the Bear reviews Admiral, and isn’t all that impressed. Admiral “butchers the complicated history of this era in order to churn out a nauseatingly sweet melodrama that puts Hollywood’s transgressions to shame.” Ouch.
- Alec also has the scoop on the secret to academic success in Russia: “He who says the least with the most words achieves success.” Or is that the secret to academic success everywhere?
- Robert Amsterdam warns against using Skype for sensitive conversations in Russia. The Chinese government have been spying on Skype calls, and he thinks the FSB probably are too.
- Mat Rodina despairs of Russian businessmen and their inability to win Western clients. He has plenty of sage advice, however. For starters, “this is not the Soviet Union, customers will not come to you and beg you to do their business.”
- Finally, what’s wrong with this picture?
Well, that’s it for this week. Just one last note before I go – keep an eye out on Siberian Light next week, as I’ll be announcing the launch of my new website.
