From what I can tell, there are elections taking place, or soon to take place in Georgia, Kazakhstan, South Ossetia and Turkmenistan. Plus Moldova proper’s odd constitutional quirk of requiring the Parliament to elect its President is causing problems in an evenly divided Parliament.

(Aside: I found it fascinating to see just how many of the politicians I’ve mentioned below have had their pictures taken with President Obama of the United States.)

Kazakhstan

First up, Central Asia’s largest country, where recently re-elected President Nursultan Nazarbayev has called a snap election for 15 January 2012. Widely expected, the election is (counter-intuitively) likely to lead to a reduction in the number of parliamentary seats held by Nur Otan, Nazarbayev’s own party.

However Nazarbayev didn’t get to spend 20 years as Kazakhstan’s President without a good sense for which way the wind is blowing. He’s likely to have calculated that his position will be made even safer if he can secure a double success of introducing a tiny amount of very tightly managed political competition that will engage people locally and give bankers and investors an excuse to believe that they are investing in country that is becoming increasingly democratic.

Of course, we should all conveniently ignore the fact that the only parties competing in the election will be broadly pro-Nazarbayev, and that the only real opposition parties of any note have either been barred from registering (Alga) or conveniently suspended from taking part in politics for six months (the Communists).

Georgia

The beleaguered Presidency of Mikheil Saakashvili faces a new threat ahead of Georgia’s 2012 Presidential election. Boris Ivanishvili – the world’s 185th richest man – has announced his intention to form a new political party and run for the Presidency.

Until recently, Ivanishvili hasn’t directly engaged in Georgian politics and largely shunned the public eye. Instead he preferred to – as this rather sympathetic BBC profile puts it – to focus on contributing to life in Georgia by “funding the arts and paying for public buildings such as Tbilisi’s huge ornate cathedral”.

Ivanishvili’s business interests are mainly in Russia, however, and he is seen by man to be far too close to the Russian Government – which is not a comfortable thing to be in a country that was humiliated by Russia on the field of battle less than three years ago.

Which means that it’s probably not much of a surprise that a Georgian law banning dual citizenship has recently been enforced against Ivanishvili, who until recently managed to hold passports from three countries – Georgia, France and Russia. And now, with his Georgian citizenship stripped from him, he’s not really eligible to take part in the Presidential election…

South Ossetia

Right next door, South Ossetia is holding its first Presidential election since Russia secured its de-facto independence in the brief 2008 war with Georgia. Intriguingly, the two main candidates came so close as to be effectively tied after the first round.

Anatoly Bibilov, the emergencies minister, and Alla Dzhioyeva, the former education minister received 23.8% and 24.6% of the vote respectively, and will duke it out in the second round next weekend. Bibilov is regarded by many as the handpicked successor of Eduard Kokoity, South Ossetia’s outgoing President who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term of office, so it comes as quite a surprise that he hasn’t managed to pull ahead of his rival.

It’s likely that he will do so in the second round, however, which will no doubt provide plenty of ammunition for Western critics who are already beginning to view this election through the prism of the pro-Kremlin candidate (Bibilov) versus the plucky opposition (Dzhioyeva), and conveniently disregarding the fact that, following the war, pretty much everyone involved in South Ossetian politics is pro-Russian.

Moldova

In Moldova, the Parliament is required to elect the country’s head of state – the President. Unfortunately, for the past two years, the Parliament has been pretty evenly divided between two main parties, the Communists and the Alliance for European Integration, and neither party has been able to put forward a candidate capable of securing the 60% of votes required to be elected.

So, for the past two years, the Moldovan State has been headed by a succession of Acting Presidents.

The latest attempt to find a candidate who could win an election failed this week, leaving Moldova facing the likelihood of a new Parliamentary election to break the deadlock. It had been hoped that the prospect of a new election (which neither party really wants) and the defections of three members of the Communist party earlier this month, but alas it was not enough of an incentive.

No news yet of what the next step will be, but if this situation goes on for much longer it’s going to make Moldova look pretty silly, and unattractive to outside investors. It’s also winding up the European Union, which would like to see Moldova settle down and chart a course one way or the other.

Turkmenistan

Finally, Turkmenistan, where a Presidential election is scheduled for February 2012.

Sadly, any hope that Turkmenistan watchers might have had that the end of Saparmurat Niyazov’s reign in 2006 might have led to a slightly more democratic government appear to have been dashed by the increasingly autocratic leadership of his successor, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow.

Although Berdimuhamedow has repealed many of Niyazov’s more bonkers policies (remember, this man was the Turkmenbashi, the President for Life, who renamed the month of January after himself), he has spent the past five years ensuring that he secures his own iron grip over Turkmen life and politics. Most notably, Berdimuhamedow was recently given the award “Hero of Turkmenistan” by the Turkmen Parliament, describing his rule as “paradise on earth”.

Naturally, we will await the results of this close fought election in February…

Post-Soviet Elections Roundup is a post from: Siberian Light

The demonstrators were upset that the Communist Party appear to have just scraped past the 50% required to take complete control of Parliament and to elect the the country’s next President.  They claim that the result was rigged.

Another Orange Revolution?

I’ve already seen quite a few people (and news organisations) drawing parallels with Ukraine’s Orange Revolution.

It’s far from clear what’s going on in Moldova at the moment, but it’s clear the situation is very out of control and pretty much everyone’s been caught on the hop. Although few think that Moldova’s Communist Party are above a certain level of electoral fraud, I don’t think anyone seriously believed that the election was a complete con. And, as a result, I think no-one expected anything more than the usual half-hearted protests from the losers.

So to see a full scale protest, complete with a ritual storming of Parliament, is quite a shock.

But, given the closeness of the election result, the genuine popularity of the Communist Party compared with their nearest rivals (the Communists got around 50%, while their nearest rivals struggled to get past 12%) I’m not sure we’ll see a dramatic revolution.

I’m going to stick my neck out, though, and predict that we’ll see a recount that gives the Communists less than 50%, and some kind of token coalition government with the opposition parties – perhaps they’ll even get to appoint a President.

The Twitter Revolution

If you really want to draw a parallel with the Orange Revolution, perhaps the best one is with the way the protest was organised, and spread like wildfire.

As Foreign Policy Blog notes in Moldova’s Twitter Revolution, protests in Ukraine were organised using cellphones and text-messaging. And, todays demonstrations have been organised using social media, like Facebook, and the latest darling of the Revolutionati – Twitter.

If you bothered  to check the most popular discussions on Twitter in the last 48 hours, you may have stumbled upon a weird threat of posts marked with a tag “#pman” (it’s currently listed in Twitter’s “Trending Topics” along with “Apple Store”, Eminem, and Easter).

No, “pman” is not short for “pacman”; it stands for “Piata Marii Adunari Nationale”, which is Romanian name for the biggest square in Chisinau, Moldova’s capital.

[...] The related posts on Twitter are being posted at a record-breaking rate – I’ve been watching the Twitter stream for the last 20 minutes – and I see almost 200 new Twitter messages marked with “pman” (virtually all of them in Romanian, with only one or two in English). In the last few hours there have also emerged several “smart” aggregators of posts on the subject, like this one – they have to contextualize what exactly is happening — and this one for YouTube videos. Many blog posts are also being updated in real-time – minute by minute – check this one. There are also a plenty of videos on YouTube and photos, including those uploaded to Facebook.

There are also a few moving English-language Twitter posts like this – “in #pman  a grenade thrown by the police has torn apart one of the protester’s leg”-  that would surely be perused by foreign journalists.

Twitter is certainly how I found out about today’s protests. But I do wonder how much Twitter has really been used to generate the protests. More likely, I think, it’s been used (and used brilliantly) to get the word out to people outside of Moldova, and to make the world sit up and take notice.

By the way – if you’re looking to keep tabs on events in Moldova, I recommend visiting the two hashtags (twitter search queries) and three users below:

• #pman (tweets about Piata Marii Adunari Nationale)
• #moldova (tweets about Moldova generally)
• Julien Frisch
• Moscovici

You can view all of their updates without joining Twitter.

Moldovan Protesters Storm Parliament in Orangey, Twittery Revolution is a post from: Siberian Light

Aleksei Ostrovsky, head of the Duma’s Committee for CIS Affairs has recommended that the Russian Government create diplomatic missions at the territories of three unrecognized republics – Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Trans-Dneister (Pridnestrovie).

According to Interfax, the document, which has been prepared for discussion and further confirmation in the Duma, recommends that Russia work to “achieve representatives’ participation of Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Pridnestrovie in all international organizations and forums, where their interests are discussed and touched.”

Also it was recommended that Russia should “resist firmly any attempts of external pressure – political, economical or military – concerning these three republics” and that the Russian Parliament suggest to the Russian Federation government that it“maintain existing forms of peacekeeping operations to settle conflicts around Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Pridnestrovie based on mutual conventions”.

According to the report:

“Nowadays the situation in the zone of Georgia-Abkhazia and Georgia-Ossetia conflicts becomes more and more complicated. Politics realized by Tbilisi is extravagant, unpredictable and sometimes destructive. Georgia is trying to break existing algorithims of conflict settlement and compromise the Russian peacekeepers’ mission. This gives a reason to Abkhazians and Ossetians to believe that Georgian administration chooses military option”.

The report’s authors note that mandate of peacekeeping forces, which are operating in the territory of the conflicts between Georgia and Abkhazia, Georgia and Ossetia, only allows them to “split the rivals, maintain regime of security and stop the fire”. To change this mandate would require the agreement of all sides. But neither Abkhazia, nor South Osetia have given their agreement, because they are afraid the departure of Russian peacekeepers would lead to destabilization of the situation in the region.

The authors of the project believe that the precedent set in Kosovo, wich recently declared its independence will have consequences for other “frozen conflicts.” If these conflicts remain “frozen,” this will be provoke new stage of confrontation between conflict sides. And this confrontation will be negative for the population.

Nugzar Ashuba, the head of Parliament of Abkhazia, speaking in the Duma, asked Russia to recognize independence of this self-proclaimed republic as soon as possible. He told Duma members that:

“The Russian Federation now (after the Kosovo incident) has enough reasons to declare the independence of Abkhazia all over the world. By doing this Russia will establish its international weight.”

Ashuba also mentioned that the Georgian government must be interested in recognition new status of republic, because Abkhazia has proved that it was able to survive as an independent entity.

“We think that if Georgia recognizes independence of Abkhazia, its government will solve many other socio-economical problems and the Georgian people will be free from waiting for war every moment.”

The rest of the Duma’s discussion was closed to journalists, but according to one source, some Duma deputies consider that Russia has to support these self-proclaimed republics, because they will never be part of Georgia again.

It is the time to remember words of President Putin during the visit of Angela Merkel last week. He reminded us that case of Kosovo would have a lot of consequences for the world.

Now we have the beginning. Who is next?

Has Kosovo set a precedent? is a post from: Siberian Light

Nagorno Karabah

In Nagorno-Karabakh, an enclave of (mostly) Armenians stuck in the middle of Azerbaijan, they’ve been voting in a referendum on their new constitution.

The constitution, which describes Nagorno-Karabakh as a “sovereign, independent state” is likely to boost hopes of independence from Azerbaijan.

Turnout was apparently above 80%, and the new constitution is expected to be approved by an overwhelming majority.

But, guess who’s unhappy with the election?

[T]he government of Azerbaijan says the referendum is being held under an illegal military occupation of Azeri territory.

This election was observed by monitors from the EU. They thought the election was well organised, free and fair.

Interfax have dug up the following comment though:

Luciano Ardesi, an observer from Italy and head of the International League for the Rights and Liberation of Peoples, said the referendum observed all voting standards.

“What the people of Nagorno Karabakh did today is quite legitimate. The international community must recognize the right of the people of Nagorno Karabakh to either establish its own state or join Armenia,” he said.

From the wording of the Interfax article, it’s not clear if Ardesi is an official spokesman for the EU election monitors, or just some random supporter of independence for Nagorno-Karabakh who happened to be in town while they were holding a referendum. If the former, then the EU are going to have some explaining to do, if the latter then Interfax will be the ones who end up with egg on their faces.

Transdniester

Meanwhile, over in the tiny sliver of Moldvoa that doesn’t really like being a part of Moldova they’ve been electing a President this weekend. Igor Smirnov, the incumbent, is likely to romp home in an election that the cynic in me thinks probably won’t be all that free or all that fair.

Smirnov plans to use his ‘victory’ to push for union with Russia:

“We have defined a scheme: at first, this is referendum, then elections and later the achievement of the goal set at the referendum – integration with Russia. This shows once again that we are building our own state. Democracy is not drawn, it can be born,” he said.

Russia likes Transdniester’s pro-Russian government, but enough to contemplate a formal union? Fat chance.

The Moldovan government, as you’d imagine, isn’t all that impressed with the democratic credentials of Transdniester’s election:

Moldova’s Foreign Ministry has called the election in Trans-Dniester “illegal,” and has asked other countries not to send international monitors. The ballot was observed, however, by dozens of Russian and Ukrainian lawmakers.

No idea what the Ukrainians thought of the election. But the Russian observers thought it was magnificent.

Two post-Soviet elections is a post from: Siberian Light

Those few of you who have been following the story may recall that
the ruling Communist Party won the recent elections with 56 seats out
of 101 in the parliament. However, President Vladimir Voronin will
require 61 votes to get re-elected by the parliament on 4 April. The
leaders of the two opposition factions who between them won the other
45 parliamentary seats pledged that they would boycott the vote, thus
ensuring that no president would be elected and triggering new
parliamentary elections.

Well, it’s not difficult to work out the political mathematics. If you’re an
opposition MP, do you vote for new elections in which you might lose
your seat, or see if you can get a deal from the President?

Former speaker of the parliament Dumitru Diacov has found an answer to the
equation by splitting with the larger coalition as part of which he was
elected, and now leads a faction of 8 MPs. It would be very foolish at
this point to bet against President Voronin’s re-election in ten days’
time, probably by 64 votes to 0. [...]

Moldova will almost certainly sink back into torpor, with occasional sabre-rattling across the Dniester. I agree with his analysis of what is about to happen in the upcoming vote, although I don’t think Moldova will sink back into torpor as a result. Sure, Moldova will drop off the news radar again – it is, after all, about as far out of the way as it is possible to get in Europe. But the re-election of Voronin is likely to provide the stability that Moldova needs to push its case for closer integration with the EU.

The Communist Party in Moldova is, despite its name, not committed to the communist ideology. Instead, it is committed to free market reform and is actually doing a pretty good job of driving the Moldovan economy forwards.  There is some corruption, but not at a significantly higher level than, say, Poland or Hungary in the early 1990s. Moldova isn’t ready to actually join the EU yet, but it is ready to begin properly integrating itself into the European economy, rather than the CIS economy.

Neither of the two opposition parties is strong enough to put forward a Presidential candidate of their own, so any President other than Voronin would have to be a compromise candidate.  And, ultimately, if a re-election was called as a result of the Parliament’s inability to choose a President, the only consequence would be months of political turmoil followed by a hung parliament which would, in turn, elect as President…. you guessed it, a compromise candidate. The country would effectively be putting business on hold for months, and there is every chance that it would elect a less effective President as a result.

Voronin, at least, has the support of a small parliamentary majority.  He can push Moldova in the direction it needs to go. And, as there is very little that Russia can offer the Moldovan economy today, that direction is West.

Moldovan endgame? is a post from: Siberian Light

Leaders of both opposition parties said Monday that they intended to boycott Parliament’s presidential vote in a bid to force a new election, the Russian news agency Itar-Tass reported. It was unclear, however, whether their statements were simply a negotiating tactic.

"Voronin will not be supported by my bloc," Chisinau Mayor Serafim Urechean, leader of Democratic Moldova, said at a news conference.

Iurie Rosca, leader of the Christian Democrats, argued that "conditions were unequal" in the election, Itar-Tass reported. But both leaders said they had dropped plans for postelection street protests, the news agency said.

The bottom line has to be that the public simply don’t feel cheated enough to come out onto the streets.   

See my previous post for more thoughts on why opposition parties are unlikely to be able to unite to prevent Voronin’s re-electiont.

The Communist Party, meanwhile, plans to re-brand itself. 

Voronin, who previously suggested that his party might change its name, on Monday said the Communists would reorganize along the lines of European parties.

"A special-task commission is already working on this issue," he said.

It’s a smart move, of course.  The name just gives out the wrong vibes to the world, especially to the EU.  The possession of a functioning free market is one of the key standards that any state aspiring to membership must meet and, although the Moldovan Communist Party of today promotes the free-markets and privatisation, the EU could never justify accepting a Communist state (even if it is in name only) into its club.  The EU is packed full, however, of ‘social-democratic’ parties.

Moldovan election aftermath is a post from: Siberian Light

• Communist Party:  46.1% / 56 seats
• Democratic Moldova Bloc: 28.4% / 24 seats
• Popular Party Christian Democratic: 9% / 11 seats

So, what next?  Well, so far, no sign of protests in the streets.  Moldovans seem pretty happy with the result.  The OSCE has reported that the elections were, "on the whole", up to OSCE standards, which doesn’t really give the opposition much to get their teeth into, even if they were united enough to do so.

The next big step is for the newly elected parliament to choose their next President.   This, according to Publius Pundit, is where things could get interesting again.  61 votes are needed to elect a President and, of course, the Communists are currently 5 votes down.  Vladimir Voronin, the current President, is going to have to do some deals if he wants to stay in charge and, if he can’t garner enough votes, there is the possibility that the Communists will lose their nerve and put forward a compromise candidate.  If the opposition can unite for long enough, Publius reckons, we could be in for a bonus election which would favour the opposition:

If 61 votes are not achieved for a candidate within three tries,
parliament is dissolved and a new parliamentary election is held. This
would potentially garner even more votes toward the opposition.

I’d say, though, that things seem to be very much in the Communist Party’s favour right now.  The two opposition parties are most definitely not united, and I don’t think they’ll be able to stand together through three rounds of voting, especially when the Communists start throwing incentives at them left, right, and centre.  Which they will.  And, even if the two party leaderships do manage to keep it together, think how much is going to be on offer to those five individual MPs to entice them to defect… 

Communists win in Moldova is a post from: Siberian Light

• The 101-seat parliament that is elected today will go on to elect the country’s President. 
• Moldova is currently governed by the Communist Party, which turned its back on Russia a year or so ago in favour of closer ties with the EU.
• The Communist Party is expected to defeat the divided opposition, although it may not win enough seats to elect the President without support from some opposition parties. 
• One of the wto main opposition parties – the Democratic Moldova Bloc – is fairly pro-Russian, the other – the Christian Democratic Popular Party – promises Ukrainian style protests. 
• The Trans-Dniester region, which is run by a criminal gang separate government and is currently policed by Russian peacekeepers, is not taking part in the election, although residents of the region are entitled to vote if they can get to a polling station. 

If you are looking for a slightly more comprehensive, but still quick-reading outline of the election, the BBC has a very good FAQ, and Scraps of Moscow provides its own eclectic guide to Moldovan internet resources, including links to all the major parties.

The BBC also has a report today about 100 Russians, claiming to be election observers, who have been barred from entry into Moldova.  Despite being told bluntly by Moldova that, while they were happy with OSCE observers, Russian and CIS election observers were not wanted, this group of Russians decided not to take the hint:

According to Russian television, the Russians who were detained on a train on Saturday wanted to ensure that the ballot was free and fair.

But the authorities claim they were not registered as monitors.

"These people said they were observers but they don’t have a single document to prove it," a government official told AFP news agency.

Check back over the next few days for election results, and any more breaking news as it happens.

Moldovan election today is a post from: Siberian Light