Although there were initial worries that Russia would be embarrassed by revelations coming out of the leaked US embassy cables, it seems like there isn’t anything in them that wasn’t already common knowledge and certainly – to date – no smoking guns have been found that would provide any real evidence of corruption by high level Russian officials, let alone the hoped for revelations that Putin was on the take.

Instead, the Russian Government have realised that the US, by taking the whole affair far to seriously, is the party looking stupid, and the Kremlin is contentedly crowing.

Calls in the US for wikileaks to be prosecuted have given great ammunition to those who want to criticise the US for talking the talk when it comes to freedom of speech, but not walking the walk. And the arrest of Wikileaks head Julian Assange has allowed people like Dmitry Rogozin, the Russian Ambassador to NATO, to criticise the United Kingdom for not respecting freedom of speech – in a tweet he noted drily that Assange’s arrest demonstrated that political persecution was still alive and well in the West:

На мой взгляд, судьба Ассанжа говорит об отсутствии свободы СМИ на Западе, наличии политических преследований и нарушений прав человека.

And the latest – Russia has gleefully seized the opportunity to suggest that Assange has done such a service to the world that he should be nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. The Guardian reports:

“Public and non-governmental organisations should think of how to help him,” the source from inside president Dmitry Medvedev’s office told Russian news agencies. Speaking in Brussels, where Medvedev was attending a Russia-EU summit yesterday , the source went on: “Maybe, nominate him as a Nobel Prize laureate.”

Next thing you know, they’ll be offering Assange a seat in the Duma, so that he can claim immunity from prosecution…

Update: A day later, and Putin weighs in directly, telling journalists at a press conference:

“If there is democracy, it must be a full one. Why did they jail Mr. Assange? Is that democracy?

You know what our villagers say: while someone’s cow is mooing, yours better be silent.”

Source: ABC News

I don’t actually think that this particular arrest of Assange is politically motivated (although I think it’s likely he might have faced a politically motivated arrest sooner or later if this handily timed Swedish prosecution hadn’t been available). Putin’s comments do, though, put into perspective US and UK criticisms of Russia. Sure, there are politically motivated arrests in Russia, but not as many as the regular knee jerk reactions coming out of the US and UK would make you believe.

Russia: “We love Wikileaks!” is a post from: Siberian Light

That Russia plans to deploy missiles close to the EU’s border to neutralise the US missile shield. Oh, and that Russia blames America for the war in Georgia.

I know plans for constitutional reform aren’t as sexy as phallic lumps of metal, but I’m baffled at how the world’s media can so spectacularly miss the importance of this. Especially on today, the day that US Presidential politics is reinvigorated by Obama’s election. Sureyly it doesn’t take much imagination for a journalist to draw some parallels between a US democracy that’s on the up, and a Russian democracy that’s on the way down.

How Medvedev’s plan to extend the Russian Presidency from a 4 to a 6 year term could be anything but bad news for Russian democracy is a mystery to me. Seriously – what actual benefits would a six year long Presidency bring over a four year long Presidency? None.

The only reason for doing this is to reduce the need for elections.

Oh, and possibly to ensure that Putin has the option to serve 12 more years as President, if he wants to.

Looking on the bright side though, Medvedev did also announce plans to reduce the threshold for entry into Russia’s parliament from the current 7%. I hope this will go some way towards re-energising Russian politics, but the cynic in me wonders if this is just a devious plan to give small parties like Yabloko an incentive to stay small and squabbling, rather than to see sense and merge.

Medvedev's speech – world misses point is a post from: Siberian Light

Vladimir Putin – Putin on the Ritz

Two lame duck leaders and one classic song can only add up to one thing: DANCING!

Gorbachev – saving hot girls from Stalin Zombies.

This one’s in hi-def, so may take a bit longer than the other videos to buffer.

Dmitry Medvedev’s own Russian Obama Girl

Like Obama, Dmitry Medvedev is Russia’s new hope. And the chicks clearly love him.

Medvedi Nevedi

Just in case you’ve not had enough of Dmitry Medvedev.

I want a man like Putin – ?????? ??? ?????

Everyone likes a man like Putin… or do they?

I think, on balance, I prefer Dobby.

Someone still loves you Boris Yeltsin

OK, I admit it. I couldn’t find a song about Yeltsin. So here’s a band named after him instead.

And that’s it. The end of my brief collection of tribute songs to Russian leaders. Have I missed any?

A musical tribute to Russia's leaders is a post from: Siberian Light

In a meeting devoted to small business problems, elected President Dmitry Medvedev proposed that inspections of companies by state organisations be severely limited.

Currently, such state organisations can visit and inspect a company at any time but, under Medvedev�s plan, they will be able to visit a company to check only of they have judicial act or another legal document from a court.

Under no illusions as to how his plans would be received, Medvedev confirmed that:

�I think this decision will shock a lot all the personnel of Public Health Authority, police and firemen. They will be full of negative emotions towards this law, because they make a lot of money, checking the companies and taking bribes.�

Medvedev added that the outcome of any company�s first inspection must not be a fine, but should be recommendations. According to the President-elect:

�large amounts of bureaucratic obstacles lead to bribes. If a person wants to build their own legal business, it is necessary to be approved by up to 45 different organisations, for example, fire security, Public Health Authority, etc. In the other words now we have a legal form of bribes.�

As a result of this culture of bureaucratic bribery, small business in Russia today is developing very slowly, and its contribution into GDP is not higher than 17%. Currently in Russia there are around 1.1 million of small business companies and 3.4 millions of independent business-person (who don�t employ staff).

But inspections by the state are not the only the only issues that complicate the lives of small businessmen in Russia today. The meeting was also told about the impact of state monopolies, and the high cost small companies must pay to connect public services.

Medvedev also re-iterated his opinion that it is necessary to create techno-parks and special business-zones in Russia. In such zones, he said, it will be much easier for businessmen to open and develop their own business. He is sure that techno-parks must appear not far from universities to make innovation about unity of education, business and science. Also he offered to expand the stimulus system for small business companies to make them invest money in the area of high technologies.

Health service, education and social sphere must be opened for small business too � he believes. Because allowing to the small business to work there will be possible to make make public service more effective.

Medvedev announces new freedoms for small business is a post from: Siberian Light

Last Saturday Chancellor of Germany Angela Merkel visited Moscow. Her visit corresponded with International Woman Day which is celebrated on the 8th of March. More importantly, though, Merkel was the first foreign leader to meet not only the current President, but also with President-elect Dmitry Medvedev. Thus, her visit was divided into two parts � formal part and informal one.

Putin met Merkel in his residence in Novo-Ogarevo and reviewed the results of collaboration between Russia and Germany:

�I hope it is not the last meeting with Frau Chancellor, but it is our last meeting while I am President. Our cooperation has been very good. For last 6 years goods turnover has increased 3.5 times and reached 50 billion dollars�.

Frau Chancellor agreed with him and said that it was necessary to look in future for more intensive cooperation between Russia and Germany. Moreover Putin and Merkel also held two-way negotiations and discussed questions of economic cooperation and current world problems.

Russia & Germany: what awaits us?

Some of the results of these negotiations reported during a press-conference, which was organized for German and Russian journalists.

Russia�s President stated that Russia would provide energy for Europe, and to ensure a more reliable supply, Russia will begin construction of gas-pipe with collaboration of Germany. This pipe will run along the bottom of the Baltic Sea and will provide a permanent supply of gas for European consumers. Also Putin promised to continue cooperation with Berlin to settle the situation about Iran, Afganistan and Middle East.

Merkel agreed with Putin, but added that, when it comes to diplomatic problems, each country has its own point of vew. The difference between both leaders� points of view became clear when the press began to ask questions. For example, Putin called NATO�s expansion as not efficient and even harmful. He said: �I have the impression that the NATO block wants to replace the UN. It forces Ukraine to enter, but people there don�t want it�. On the contrary, Merkel considered that NATO is open to everybody, and had only function was defence against terrorism and other global chanllenges.

The Russian President also called the proclamation of Kosovo�s independence a precedent which would have consequences not only in Europe, but in many regions of the world. Merkel replied that Kosovo was a unique case.

At end of the press-conference Merkel said that she would be glad to work with the new Russian President – Dmitry Medevev – and she hoped that cooperation between Russia and Germany would be as intensive as it was with Putin.

Putin resumed the press-conference with the provocative statement:

�I see that some people are waiting for me to leave the post. They think that with another person as the President, things will be much easier. Medvedev doesn�t have the label of KGB person, but he is the same Russian nationalist (in good sense) as me. He is real patriot of his country and will be active in defending Russians� interest in world politics�

In my opinion Putin with his statement gave another opportunity for world society to discuss who is the boss in the duet � Putin or Medvedev? But one thing now is clear: other political leaders can�t be relaxed with Russia�s new president. Russia will continue to defend its interests in the international arena.

Merkel doesn't say goodbye to Putin is a post from: Siberian Light

The way I see it, there are three broad possibilities for the coming years.

1). Putin is really the boss, and he intends to stay the boss. Either Putin will gradually shift power to the office of Prime Minister, or he’ll run for the Presidency again in 2012 after a caretaker Medvedev Presidency.

2). A planned transfer of power to Medvedev. Either Putin plans to gradually groom his successor, or he plans to surprise us all by retiring from Russian politics in May, while he is on top of his game.

3). An unplanned transfer of power to Medvedev. The Presidency is a constitutionally more powerful role than that of Prime Minister, and Medvedev may fancy his chances of success if he can slowly build his real power base to challenge Putin’s influence.

1 – Putin stays in power

Let’s face it, pretty much everyone in the West, and probably most in Russia too, thinks Putin plans to remain Russian top dog for some time to come.

Putin is, after all, a man in his political prime. He is regarded at home and abroad as the architect of Russia’s recent revival (even if the seeds were really sown during the last years of the Yeltsin Presidency, and watered by downpours of oil), and is immensely popular among the Russian electorate.

If I was in Putin’s shoes, I probably wouldn’t want to retire either.

So, if you’re President who has to resign at the end of his second term, but wants to legitimately remain in power, what do you do?

Simple. You find another powerful job, and find someone both reliable and malleable to take on the role of President. In this case, Putin has picked the role of Prime Minister as his ideal job, and Dmitry Medvedev as his reliable, yet malleable Presidential sidekick.

As Prime Minister, Putin has all the official constitutional excuse he needs to wield power. And, working with a President whose power base is thought to be pretty much non-existent beyond Putin, he shouldn’t face any real competition for power. The advantage of being Prime Minister, of course, is that there are no term limits. If he wants to, and he can pull it off, Putin could stay as Russia’s PM until the day he dies.

However, the disadvantage to being Prime Minister is that, technically, he serves at the discretion of the President. If Putin can’t find a way to change the constitution in the next four years, he might well consider that the safest option is to run back to the security of the Presidency in 2012.

2 – A planned transfer of power to Medvedev

Russia’s economy is booming – most people’s incomes have shot up during Putin’s rule, a middle class is forming, and the country seems awash with money. Of course, everyone thinks Putin is great.

But Russia’s wealth is built mainly on energy exports and record high prices for oil and gas. It’s economy hasn’t diversified, and the global economy is uncertain, at best. If oil prices crash, the Russian economy is likely to follow.

And if the Russian suffers another financial meltdown like 1998, guess who they’re going to blame?

Given the global economic uncertainty, now might seem a very attractive time for Putin to retire on top of his game, with his reputation intact. He could crack open the little nest egg he’s supposedly been stashing away over the past eight years and live a very comfortable retirement.

In this scenario, the only real question is when does Putin intend to retire? Does he intend to go out in a blaze of glory in May, or will he hang on a while to show Medvedev the ropes.

Going out in a blaze of glory has its attractions, of course, but it has its dangers too. Medvedev doesn’t have a massive power base and, while watching Medvedev struggle might have a certain appeal for Putin, it also opens him up to dangers. Putin has made many enemies during the past eight years and, in an uncertain country like Russia, protection is vital. A weak President can’t offer much protection.

It may well be best for Putin to hold off on retiring immediately, and spend a little time showing his acolyte the ropes.

3 – An unplanned transfer of power

For Russia, an unplanned transfer of power is probably the least desirable outcome – in the short-term, at least. Journalists probably love the idea, though, as few things sell newspapers better than an epic power struggle.

The position of President of Russia is a powerful one. As noted above, the President can technically fire his Prime Minister and Government at will. Both Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev know this.

Much has been made of Medvedev’s political weakness compared to Putin. He is widely regarded as Putin’s man. And, in a very real sense, he is. Without Putin’s sponsorship, Medvedev would probably be muddling along in regional politics, or have given up politics entirely in favour of a steady management job somewhere.

If he were to try and fire Putin this year, no-one would stand for it. Medvedev simply couldn’t rule today without Putin’s active support.

But there’s something about being President of a powerful country that increases a man’s stature in the eyes of his people – and increases a man’s stature in his own eyes. Surely, one day, Medvedev will get tired of being told what to do by his supposed subordinate?

Will we see another battle for the White House?

Putin or Medvedev – who is the boss? is a post from: Siberian Light

To give Clinton some credit, though, she does at least know who calls the shots in Russia:

“I have no doubt that as the president of the United States, even though technically the meetings would be with the person labelled as president, the decisions will be made by Putin.”

Obama holds pretty much the same view, but was at least able to show off with a little background information about Putin.

“He is someone who was handpicked by Putin. And Putin has made it very clear he will continue to have the strongest hand in Russia when it comes to the government.”

Still, it’s nice to see that some consideration is being to Russia in the US Presidential election.

Update: Russia Today have a fuller report on the debate here.

"Medvedveda" – Clinton mangles Medvedev is a post from: Siberian Light

According to the BBC, the British Council are to release a statement later today:

A formal statement from the director of the British Council is expected on Thursday.

Sources have told the BBC there does not appear to be much appetite for retaliation at the Foreign Office, where there is a recognition that Britain has few options left in the row.

Each and every Russian member of staff at the British Council was either questioned yesterday by the FSB, or received a late-night home visit from an interior ministry official. They were apparently told in no uncertain terms that their jobs were illegal, and that if they continued to work for the British Council, they would be breaking the law.

The British Council, in their statement, are likely to stress that their decision was motivated by a desire to ensure the safety of their staff – and quite rightly so. As I mentioned in my previous post, the Council’s British staff can just go home at the end of this dispute – the Council’s Russian staff have to stay and face any consequences.

One thing that hasn’t been raised is what the immediate future of Russian British Council staff members – I’m sure the Council will do what it can fothem, but in the very near future, they will officially lose their jobs, and their monthly paychecks.

Overall, I agree with the British Council’s decision at this point. Any responsible employer would do the same. The British Council played the hand they were dealt as well as they could, but ultimately it was a weak hand – the Russian government held all the aces.

According to the BBC, the British Council plan to take the ‘moral high ground’ over this issue – to stress that this is Russia’s loss, rather than Britain’s.

This may play on the international stage but, on the Russian domestic stage, I think this will look very much like a victory for Russia, and a triumph for Putin and Medvedev in the run up to March’s Presidential election.

Update: Both the British Council and British Foreign Minister David Miliband have issued statements on the issue. Here are a couple of hefty excerpts:

British Council statement (pdf):

At the start of this week the Russian Government initiated a campaign of intimidation against our staff in St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg.

On Tuesday 15 January, the Russian State Security Services (FSB) summoned over 20 Russian staff to attend individual interviews.

Late that night 10 members of staff were visited at home by the Russian tax police and called to further interviews yesterday.

The interviews had little to do with their work and were clearly aimed at exerting undue pressure on innocent individuals.

Our paramount consideration is the wellbeing of our staff and I feel we cannot continue our work without significant risk to them.

David Miliband statement to Parliament:

The Russian security services summoned over 20 locally-engaged members of British Council staff in St Petersburg and Yekaterinburg one by one for interviews. 10 members of staff were interviewed late at night in their homes after calls by the Russian tax police. Questioning ranged from the institutional status of the British Council to personal questions about the health and welfare of family pets.

Mr Speaker, these Russian citizens have chosen to offer their skills and hard work to promote cultural contact between the people of Russia and the UK. As a result, they have been the subject of blatant intimidation from their own government.

Mr Speaker, I think the whole House will agree that such actions are reprehensible, not worthy of a great country, and contrary to the letter and spirit of the legal framework under which the British Council operates – notably international law, including the Vienna Conventions, and the UK/Russia 1994 bilateral agreement on cultural cooperation which Russia has ratified.

Russia has failed to show any legal reasons under Russian or international law why the British Council should not continue to operate. Russia has also failed to substantiate its claims that the British Council is avoiding paying tax. The British Council is in fact registered for tax in Russia and has complied with all requests of the tax authorities in respect of its activities. Therefore, instead of taking legal action against the Council, they have resorted to intimidation of the Council’s staff.

Later on in his statement, Miliband (correctly, but rather smugly, it seemed to me) outlined the moral high ground that Britain plans to occupy:

We regard as entirely separate issues Mr Litvinenko’s murder and the activities of the British Council to build up links between British and Russian schools and universities, to support English language teaching in Russia and Russian studies in the UK, and to promote the best of British drama, writing, music, and art.

Nor do we believe that cultural activities should become a political football; in fact educational and cultural activities are important ways of bringing people together. That is why I have decided not to take similar action against Russia’s cultural activities in the UK, for example by sending back Russian masterpieces scheduled for show at the Royal Academy, or by taking measures against the two Russian diplomats at the Russian Embassy dedicated to cultural work.

We have nothing to fear from these contacts; we welcome and encourage them.

Russia 'wins' British Council battle? is a post from: Siberian Light