Alla Dzhioyeva voting in South Ossetia's disputed 2011 Presidential Election

“I will assume office on February 10,” Dzhioyeva told reporters, adding that “I can’t tell you about the place of the inauguration so far. I will turn to the South Ossetia acting head with a request for a civilized transfer of power as befits a legitimately elected president.”

Dzhioyeva received almost 57% of the vote in November, but the poll was annulled by the South Ossetian Supreme Court on the grounds that Dzhioyeva’s had used illegal campaigning tactics. A re-run has been scheduled for March, although it still remains unclear whether Dzhioyeva would be allowed to participate.

Dzhioyeva Tricked

Dzhioyeva’s decision to hold the inauguration independently marks an escalation of tensions in the former Georgian republic, and appears to put a negotiated settlement beyond reach.

In announcing her decision, Dzhioyeva told reporters that she felt she had been tricked into a previous agreement to pull her supporters from the streets of South Ossetia’s capital city and agree to a March re-run of the election:

“Mediators, who have arrived from Moscow, in particular Sergey Vinokurov, to put it bluntly, have bamboozled us. I am telling you with absolute sincerity, that I could have never imagined that such a senior level official, under whose mediation this agreement was signed, would have simply exploited our tiredness and would have made us sign an agreement which was disadvantageous for us.”

Other developments

As well as Dzhioyeva’s announcement about the inauguration, there have been a couple of other interesting developments in the past few days.

Jambolat Tedeyev, the coach of Russia’s national wrestling team who was barred from participating in the November election, is apparently considering running in the March election. Co-incidentally, or perhaps not, Tedeyev was questioned by Russian police a few days later. Nothing seems to have come of it yet, but there is speculation that he may soon be charged with attempting to engineer a coup in South Ossetia.

And, in a demonstration of how important the issue of South Ossetia remains to both Russia and Georgia, both countries are both engaging in a diplomatic charm offensive – in Fiji of all places. Georgia, which clearly is awash with un-needed technology, has just donated 200 unwanted netbook computers to the Fijian Government. The donation was announced just days before the Russian Foreign Minister’s visit to the Pacific country.

Disputed South Ossetian presidential election – candidate announces own inauguration is a post from: Siberian Light

However, within the former Soviet Empire, the CIS is a sort of successor organisation, being a loose collection of many of the former Soviet states.

Fall of an Empire

With Communist rule being eradicated throughout Eastern Europe, the Soviet Union was financially bereft and on its way to extinction by the late 1980’s.

Its successor was the CIS, or the Commonwealth of Independent States. Headed by Russia as the largest former Soviet state, the CIS comprised of all former Soviet countries except for the Baltic nations of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia.

The CIS was founded on 08^th December 1991 and at the time, it consisted of just three member states – Russia, Belarus and the Ukraine. By the end of the month it had been joined by nine further countries with just the Baltic States remaining as notable absentees.

CIS gathers momentum

After declaring independence, many former Soviet countries found it a struggle to come to terms with life outside of a co-dependent empire. This was a view that was neatly summed up in 2001 by Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma.

“Today we all realize we just can’t live apart from each other, neither economically, nor politically and socially,” Kuchma said at the time.

Kuchma went on to declare that the CIS had suddenly found itself as a major power on the world’s stage and he likened this sudden realisation to a religious epiphany.

“It took the Commonwealth leaders a whole decade to finally realize this simple truth,” Kuchma added “either we all saw the light, or maybe we’ve been given some help from the Lord.”

For a time, former Soviet nations participated as the CIS in the sporting arena as a single entity and for many casual observers, this brought the new organisation into world view. The simple fact that those former nations now play independently leads to a point of view that the CIS now longer exists but that simply isn’t true.

The CIS today

With Georgia’s withdrawal in 2008, the CIS now consists of ten member states – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan.

Although those countries are strictly speaking independent, the CIS still exists to assist with economy and free trade in much the same way as the European Union was set up to do.

Within the CIS, the Russian Federation is by far the largest country and when the Soviet Union fell, it contained 51% of the Communist Empire’s population and 71% of its territory. As a result of that, the UN recognises it as the true USSR successor and across the world, Soviet embassies were renamed as Russian.

USSR successor is a post from: Siberian Light

According to RIA Novosti, the Russian Supreme Court’s decision came after the Central Election Commission appealed to it on the the grounds that Smirnova was a citizen of three countries – Russia, Ukraine and Moldova – and election rules stipulate that Duma candidates can only be citizens of a single country – Russia.

I’m really not sure what to make of this story – does it mean, for example, that:

• The crude way in which opposition parties are repressed (A Just Russia have already complained that the court’s decision is politically motivated – a claim which echoes the treatment in Georgia of an opposition Presidential candidate)
• Relations between Russia and Transnistria are souring, and this is in fact a coded message to the Transnistrian leader to shape up
• Russian elections are un-democratic because the rules bar many Russian citizens from standing for election
• The Russian Supreme Court’s decisions strictly follow the law and there is nothing unusual at all about this case

Personally, I think it’s likely that Simonova simply broke the electoral rules (probably inadvertently), but I thought the list above might prove a useful example of how it’s possible to spin a single story about Russia in multiple ways.

Transnistria leader’s daughter in law barred from standing in Russian Duma election is a post from: Siberian Light

From what I can tell, there are elections taking place, or soon to take place in Georgia, Kazakhstan, South Ossetia and Turkmenistan. Plus Moldova proper’s odd constitutional quirk of requiring the Parliament to elect its President is causing problems in an evenly divided Parliament.

(Aside: I found it fascinating to see just how many of the politicians I’ve mentioned below have had their pictures taken with President Obama of the United States.)

Kazakhstan

First up, Central Asia’s largest country, where recently re-elected President Nursultan Nazarbayev has called a snap election for 15 January 2012. Widely expected, the election is (counter-intuitively) likely to lead to a reduction in the number of parliamentary seats held by Nur Otan, Nazarbayev’s own party.

However Nazarbayev didn’t get to spend 20 years as Kazakhstan’s President without a good sense for which way the wind is blowing. He’s likely to have calculated that his position will be made even safer if he can secure a double success of introducing a tiny amount of very tightly managed political competition that will engage people locally and give bankers and investors an excuse to believe that they are investing in country that is becoming increasingly democratic.

Of course, we should all conveniently ignore the fact that the only parties competing in the election will be broadly pro-Nazarbayev, and that the only real opposition parties of any note have either been barred from registering (Alga) or conveniently suspended from taking part in politics for six months (the Communists).

Georgia

The beleaguered Presidency of Mikheil Saakashvili faces a new threat ahead of Georgia’s 2012 Presidential election. Boris Ivanishvili – the world’s 185th richest man – has announced his intention to form a new political party and run for the Presidency.

Until recently, Ivanishvili hasn’t directly engaged in Georgian politics and largely shunned the public eye. Instead he preferred to – as this rather sympathetic BBC profile puts it – to focus on contributing to life in Georgia by “funding the arts and paying for public buildings such as Tbilisi’s huge ornate cathedral”.

Ivanishvili’s business interests are mainly in Russia, however, and he is seen by man to be far too close to the Russian Government – which is not a comfortable thing to be in a country that was humiliated by Russia on the field of battle less than three years ago.

Which means that it’s probably not much of a surprise that a Georgian law banning dual citizenship has recently been enforced against Ivanishvili, who until recently managed to hold passports from three countries – Georgia, France and Russia. And now, with his Georgian citizenship stripped from him, he’s not really eligible to take part in the Presidential election…

South Ossetia

Right next door, South Ossetia is holding its first Presidential election since Russia secured its de-facto independence in the brief 2008 war with Georgia. Intriguingly, the two main candidates came so close as to be effectively tied after the first round.

Anatoly Bibilov, the emergencies minister, and Alla Dzhioyeva, the former education minister received 23.8% and 24.6% of the vote respectively, and will duke it out in the second round next weekend. Bibilov is regarded by many as the handpicked successor of Eduard Kokoity, South Ossetia’s outgoing President who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term of office, so it comes as quite a surprise that he hasn’t managed to pull ahead of his rival.

It’s likely that he will do so in the second round, however, which will no doubt provide plenty of ammunition for Western critics who are already beginning to view this election through the prism of the pro-Kremlin candidate (Bibilov) versus the plucky opposition (Dzhioyeva), and conveniently disregarding the fact that, following the war, pretty much everyone involved in South Ossetian politics is pro-Russian.

Moldova

In Moldova, the Parliament is required to elect the country’s head of state – the President. Unfortunately, for the past two years, the Parliament has been pretty evenly divided between two main parties, the Communists and the Alliance for European Integration, and neither party has been able to put forward a candidate capable of securing the 60% of votes required to be elected.

So, for the past two years, the Moldovan State has been headed by a succession of Acting Presidents.

The latest attempt to find a candidate who could win an election failed this week, leaving Moldova facing the likelihood of a new Parliamentary election to break the deadlock. It had been hoped that the prospect of a new election (which neither party really wants) and the defections of three members of the Communist party earlier this month, but alas it was not enough of an incentive.

No news yet of what the next step will be, but if this situation goes on for much longer it’s going to make Moldova look pretty silly, and unattractive to outside investors. It’s also winding up the European Union, which would like to see Moldova settle down and chart a course one way or the other.

Turkmenistan

Finally, Turkmenistan, where a Presidential election is scheduled for February 2012.

Sadly, any hope that Turkmenistan watchers might have had that the end of Saparmurat Niyazov’s reign in 2006 might have led to a slightly more democratic government appear to have been dashed by the increasingly autocratic leadership of his successor, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow.

Although Berdimuhamedow has repealed many of Niyazov’s more bonkers policies (remember, this man was the Turkmenbashi, the President for Life, who renamed the month of January after himself), he has spent the past five years ensuring that he secures his own iron grip over Turkmen life and politics. Most notably, Berdimuhamedow was recently given the award “Hero of Turkmenistan” by the Turkmen Parliament, describing his rule as “paradise on earth”.

Naturally, we will await the results of this close fought election in February…

Post-Soviet Elections Roundup is a post from: Siberian Light

The news comes almost immediately after a customs and trade monitoring agreement between Russia and Georgia which had been holding up Russian accession for years.

Only two hurdles now remain between Russia and full WTO membership – the Ministerial Conference, attended by representatives of each member state, must approve Russian accession at its meeting of 15-17 December, and then Russia itself must ratify the decision by 15 June 2012.

Under the terms of the deal Russia will have to make a number of changes. Most notably, it will have to cut import tariffs on a wide range of goods – its 2011 average import tariff ceiling of 10% will be cut by more than a fifth, to a maximum of 7.8% – and eliminate a number of state subsidies. The full terms of the deal can be found in the announcement on the WTO website.

As you would expect, the analysts are all over this news. And, as you’d expect, reaction is mixed. For example, the Wall Street Journal thinks that it will benefit Russia’s economy and – more importantly – increase the rule of law in Russia. Bloomburg, on the other hand, chooses to focus on the negative, noting that although Russian industry will get a boost from WTO membership, it will also annoy everyone else by not playing by the rules.

Global reaction has been pretty positive, though, on the whole. US President Barack Obama told reporters that “Russia’s WTO accession would be yet another important step forward in our reset of relations with Russia, which has been based upon the belief that the United States and Russia share many common interests, even as we disagree on some issues.” His next step will be to recommend that the US Congress repeals the Jackson-Vanik amendment, a Cold War hangover that prevents the US from granting favoured trading nation status to countries that restrict human rights. Whether Congress will do what he asks is another question…

Smaller countries, such as Finland, which is Russia’s third largest export market, have also welcomed the deal.

On a slightly lighter note, the deal will, at a stroke, almost halve the landmass of countries no longer in the WTO – the only holdouts now being countries marked in grey on this map – notably all the Central Asia countries, a few African and Middle Eastern countries and some of the poorer and more troubled parts of Eastern Europe. Oh, and North Korea. Now that’s a club that I’m sure Russia will be happy to be leaving behind.

Russia WTO entry – all but guaranteed is a post from: Siberian Light

Global Voices this weekend reports on a Georgian blogger, Yuri Yakunin who was reportedly offered $300, by a mysterious man named only as Sergey, to write a negative post about Georgia’s President, Mikheil Saakashvili. However, rather than just accept the money, write the post, and run, Yakunin posted a report of the offer, and screenshots of his conversations with Sergey, online to prompt a public debate.

You can read a summary of the debate over at the ever excellent Global Voices, but I must confess I’m confused as to why anyone would have approached Yakunin in the first place. He’s already known as a blogger who can be critical of Saakashvili, so why would anyone waste $300 on such a post. Or perhaps (place tin hat firmly on head), it’s a double bluff of some kind, and Saakashvili supporters were offering the money in order to damage a the reputation of a high profile blogger who happens to be anti-Saak.

Based on Yakunin’s description of the approach, I also wonder why on earth anyone would accept the money in the first place. If someone called Sergey approached me via internet chat offering $300 to write a political post (sadly, no-one ever has), the first thing I’d wonder is how genuine are they. How could I ever trust someone who approaches me anonymously online offering cash?

Which brings me to my question. Does anyone out there have any knowledge or experience of how this blogging black market actually works. If you do, please share your knowledge in the comments below. I’d love to know how widespread, if at all, this practice is, and of how the process works.

Georgian blogger offered cash to write anti-Government blog post is a post from: Siberian Light

Russia 9:15 Georgia

Visiting Russia needing a win to secure a Grand Slam of five victories out of five in this season’s tournament, Georgia scored two tries en route to a 16:9 victory over their hosts.

The game was fairly even throughout the first half – both sides traded penalties to leave the score at 3:3 at the break. But two Georgian tries in the second half, versus two Russian penalties was the difference between the sides.

The match was the first between the two countries played on Russian soil since their brief 2008 war and, as expected, it was a tense affair. Not just on the pitch, where at one point there was a mass brawl, but off the pitch as well. According to reports in the Georgian press, some of the Georgian players had trouble getting to the match, and Russian TV took a last minute decision not to provide Georgian TV companies with a live feed of the match.

Although there were problems with the live feed, there were fortunately cameras at the match, and you can view a video of the match highlights here:

Portugal 46 − 24 Ukraine and Romania 64 − 8 Spain

No surprises in the other two matches, as Portugal and Romania both recorded fairly easy wins.

Portugal will probably be a bit disappointed that they weren’t able to put more points past Ukraine, but they scored the tries they needed to secure a bonus point.

Romania also scored a bonus point as they romped to an unexpectedly easy win over Spain, who chose to rest many of their best players ahead of the forthcoming Hong Kong Sevens tournament. A mistake in my opinion, as this leaves their team second from bottom in the table, instead of in the second position that a victory would have secured.

European Nations Cup Table

Georgia have five wins out of five, and top the table by a huge margin. They’ve clearly been the best team this season, and it’ll be a huge shock if their performances next season don’t secure them the title in this two-season tournament.

What next?

November’s Rugby World Cup awaits for Georgia, Russia and Romania. But before then, each of the teams will participate in summer warm up tournaments.

IRB Nations Cup 2011

Georgia and Romania, plus Portugal who so nearly qualified for the World Cup, will play in the IRB Nations Cup 2011, where they’ll take on the South African Kings, the Argentina Jaguars, and fellow World Cup minnows Namibia.

Matches will be played in Bucharest on the 10th, 15th and 19th June.

Churchill Cup 2011

Russia will again play in the Churchill Cup. This year’s Cup will be divided into two pools of three teams. Russia will take on Canada and Italy A in Pool B, while England Saxons, Tonga and the United States will compete in Pool A.

An odd feature of this tournament is that every team will get to play in a ‘final’ match, against their compatriots in the opposite pool. So, the winners of each pool will meet in the Cup Final, the runners up in each pool will meet in theta Plate Final, and the wooden spoon rivals will meet in the Bowl final.

If the tournament goes to form, then Russia and the USA are likely to finish last in their pools, which could set up an intriguing clash between the two ahead of the hotly anticipated World Cup clash.

2011 Churchill Cup matches will all be played in England on June 4th, 8th, 12th and 18th.

We’ll bring you updates from each tournament, as well as coverage of the Rugby World Cup, so keep an eye out for our coverage.

Georgia beat Russia to top ENC rugby table is a post from: Siberian Light

Georgia 18-11 Romania

The biggest clash of the weekend looked like it would be an easy romp for Georgia, after they roared into a 15-0 lead after just 12 minutes on the back of tries from Vakhtang Maisuradze and full back Besik Khamashuridze.

But then Georgia pretty much fell asleep for the rest of the game, and by all accounts were outplayed by their Romanian guests, particularly their forwards who were surprisingly effective. Although Romania outscored Georgia 11-3 through the rest of the game, they didn’t quite have the cutting edge or attacking flair to overcome their hosts.

Here are some video highlights of the Georgia Romania match.

And you can read more about Georgia’s victory over Romania at the FIRA-AER forum.

Ukraine 5-41 Russia

As expected, Russia secured a comfortable victory over neighbours Ukraine, who have so far been the division’s whipping boys, struggling after their promotion from last year’s ENC Division 2.

Knowing that victory was almost certain, Russia were confident enough to field an experimental team. Tries from Grachev, Shakirov, Fatakhov, Ostroushko and Galinovsky saw them home in a rather one sided affair.

Read more about the match at the FIRA-AER forum – Ukraine 5-41 Russia.

Spain 25-10 Portugal

The surprise of the weekend was Spain’s victory over neighbours Portugal. Until now, Portugal had looked impressive, losing by a single point to Georgia the previous weekend. But they were simply outplayed in Spain, particularly in the second half where Spain turned a 13-10 lead into a comfortable 25-10 victory. Here’s the FIRA-AER forum discussion of the Spain-Portugal match.

Are Georgia European Nations Cup Champions for 2011?

The European Nations Cup is a really odd tournament. It’s played over two seasons, rather than one, to ensure that the teams have the opportunity to play each other both home and away. The upshot of this is that no-one’s ever sure whether they’ve won the title or not.

If, like ROAR, we count just the results from this season, though, then Georgia have won the 2011 European Nations Cup title with a game in hand. As you can see from the table above, they’re eight points clear of second placed teams Russia and Spain, and with only a game to play, neither can hope to overtake the Georgians.

Me, though, I’m a two-season man, so everything’s still up for grabs in my eyes. Georgia might be well ahead, but there’s still a mathematical chance that they could be overhauled across the two seasons (even if there isn’t actually a real chance!).

World Rankings

Regardless of the title position, Georgia’s win means that they rise one more place up the world rankings, up to 14th. They displace Canada, who they beat last autumn, and move within striking distance of Japan.

Romania (18th), Russia (19th), Portugal (20th), Spain (23rd) and Ukraine (30th) all remain in the same ranking spot.

Preview of European Nations Cup Rugby, Week 5

This weekend sees the final weekend of this half of the European Nations Cup season.

The big match is, of course, going to be the Russia-Georgia clash. Russia have underperformed this season, losing to Portugal at home, and then being thrashed by Romania, so they’ll have a point to prove in their last competitive match before the World Cup. Georgia also have a lot to prove – they’ve won all four matches, but in their last two matches have displayed some vulnerabilities.

Both matches between these two countries were played on neutral territory last season, because of the 2008 Russia-Georgia war, but this season marks the return of proper home and away fixtures between the two sides. The problem for Russia, however, is that they’ve got to play in Sochi, rather than in their rugby heartlands further north. The last game Russia played in Sochi attracted a miserable 85 spectators. Hopefully some more people will turn up for this bigger match, because if not, Russia are going to be outnumbered by Georgian supporters on their own turf.

A win for Russia is definitely a realistic outcome, but much less likely in the dead atmosphere of Sochi. On balance, I think Georgia are the favourites to win this one.

The weekend’s other fixtures see Romania host Spain, in what should be a fairly comfortable victory for the Romanian Oaks, and Portugal host Ukraine in what is certain to be a comfortable romp to victory for the Portuguese.

Until next week…

European Nations Cup wins for Russia, Georgia and Spain is a post from: Siberian Light

It sounds bonkers, but the Georgian government are very serious. A couple of groups of South African farmers have already toured the country looking for suitable properties, and Georgia have even set up a website – www.boers.ge – to sell the country to agricultural investors.

The website’s name gives an interesting indication of the South African politics that are also serving to push this initiative – the marketing is targeted specifically at Boer farmers, who are increasingly disaffected in South Africa. One of the farmers told the BBC:

“The government can come to you, and tell you, this is what we are willing to pay for your farm and you have to sell. If the government doesn’t recognise the value you put on the farm, wants to pay you maybe a half of that, and you have to sell, what security do you have?”

Although the politics behind the move might be suspect to some (the Moscow Times reports that there are already some nationalist Boer websites wondering if the Caucasus is ‘white’ enough for their farmers, and that there are also some Georgians who are suspicious of the plan’s potential to cause ethnic tensions in Georgia) I think that, if this plan comes off, then, on a business level, the move is going to do Georgia’s farming industry a great deal of good – farmers who are experienced at working in a way largely alien to Georgian farming will not only make a success of their own farms but will, through competition, force domestic farmers to improve too.

And, if nothing else, an influx of rugby playing farmers is sure to do boost the already high flying Georgia rugby team!

As an aside – here’s an extract from the boers.ge website that I’m not sure too many people will be able to relate to:

“Georgian Police is one of the most effective polices in the world. Undertaken reforms eliminated corruption and increased trust in population.”

Hmmmm. I’m sure the Georgian police is much better than it used to be, but “one of the most effective polices in the world”? Perhaps not.

South African Farmers to Move to Georgia is a post from: Siberian Light

Georgia 36 – 8 Russia

Russia started brightly, and took an early 5-3 lead after fullback Igor Klyuchnikov burst over the line. But that was the only sniff of victory that Georgia were going to allow Russia. The well drilled Georgian forwards simply overpowered their Russian counterparts, and between the 21st and 32nd minutes scored the three ties that killed the tie and, with it, Russia’s hopes of the title. Two more second half tries

Both teams had already qualified for the 2011 Rugby World Cup in New Zealand, but the result means that Georgia will play against Scotland, England and Argentina in Pool B, while Russia will face Australia, Ireland, Italy and – most intriguingly – the United States in Pool C. On the basis of this performance against Russia, it looks like Georgia will certainly be a handful in next year’s World Cup.

Portugal 9 – 20 Romania

This week’s biggest match though, was oddly not the title decider – it was the Romania vs Portugal matchup, with the winner almost certain of a playoff spot for the World Cup. Romania won comfortably and, although they’re still one point behind Portugal in the table, they have one game still to play, against struggling Spain. All Romania need to do to leapfrog Portugal is avoid defeat against Spain, which realistically is a match that they should easily win nine times out of ten.

Credit to Romania – they’ve been marked as a team on the decline for more than a decade now and, at the halfway point of this two-year tournament, had looked distinctly average, languishing in 4th/5th place.

But this year Romania have been the form team, tying with Russia, beating Georgia and, finally, beating Portugal this weekend. They certainly deserve a place in the Rugby World Cup Playoff, and if they can maintain their form, they’ll probably do well at the World Cup itself.

Harsh on Portugal though, a team who have, throughout the tournament looked like genuine contenders. All of their matches against Russia, Georgia and Romania have been incredibly tense affairs, with none (other than this weekend’s) being won or lost by more than six points. They’ll be gutted to not qualify for the World Cup and, had a few bounces of the ball gone their way instead of their opponents’, they could have been Champions this year.

In the third and final of this weekend’s matches, Spain beat Germany 21 – 17, an unsurprising result, but a scoreline that Germany, who have looked out of their depth at this level, will be pleased with.

For the stats fans among you, here’s the tournament’s final table (well, almost final table – Romania still have to play bottom team Germany in a match that’s been postponed, but that should be a mere formality).

[table id=5 /]

That’s it for Russia’s European Nations Cup / Rugby World Cup qualification campaign. The Russian national rugby team will next be in action in June, when they’ll play in the Churchill Cup for the first time, facing the England Saxons (England’s B team) and the United States (a matchup which promises to be an intriguing preview of their matchup in next year’s World Cup).

Russia’s rugby sevens team also have a hectic schedule ahead of them, starting with the Hong Kong sevens, this weekend.

Rugby: Georgia beat Russia 36:8 is a post from: Siberian Light