Especially when Putin gives quotes like this:

“The country is nearing parliamentary elections to be followed by presidential elections… We all need to think together about building the power and governing structure so that they can better meet the needs of the pre-election period, and prepare the country for the time after parliamentary and presidential elections in March 2008.”

The BBC reckons the next PM will be Sergei Ivanov.  I think they’re probably right.

Update:  Well, what do I know? 

Instead of appointing Ivanov as his next Prime Minister, Putin has appointed Viktor Zubkov, the relatively unknown head of the Federal Financial Monitoring Service. 

The move seems to have wrong-footed most analysts, and the new, updated consensus seems to that there is a big unresolved power struggle between rival Kremlin clans, and that Zubkov got the job because he’s inoffensive (see, for example, the BBC).  But, if that’s the case, why did Fradkov resign as Prime Minister in the first place? 

Personally, I think it’s because Putin’s got a wicked sense of humour, and enjoys nothing better than spending his days winding up Kremlinologists.

Russian cabinet resigns to make way for new PM is a post from: Siberian Light

Maria Gaidar was prevented from addressing the crowd by, allegedly, Eduard Limonov, leader of the National Bolshevik Party (NBP) and Garry Kasparov’s close ally in the Other Russia anti-government coalition.

The article goes on to translate blog entries from both Maria herself, and Ilya Yashin, which, I think perfectly illustrate the contradictions and conflicts within the current broadly constituted Russian opposition.

Fractures within the Russian opposition? is a post from: Siberian Light

The Guardian say they will be meeting in March.  Garry Kasparaov, however, says they’re meeting in July.

Whatever the date turns out to be, I for one will be mightily impressed if Russia’s disparate opposition parties do manage to pick one Presidential candidate, let alone stand united behind him throughout an entire election campaign.

Still, if I had to pick one candidate, I’d say that, if they’re going to unite behind anyone, it’ll be Mikhail Kasyanov, the former Prime Minister.  From the list of available candidates I’ve seen so far, he’s the only one who even approaches heavyweight status.

Russian opposition to pick unified Presidential candidate is a post from: Siberian Light

Most likely [...] some obvious or hidden adversaries of the Russian authorities stand behind the scenes of this event, those who are interested in further radical deterioration of relations between Russia and the west.

After all, Gaidar asks, who else would gain from his murder? The FSB or Kremlin are unlikely to want to undertake another high-profile poisoning so soon after Alexander Litvinenko (even assuming they were behind his death), and Gaidar has no business interests of note that would attract the interest of the Russian mafia.

Russia Blog also poses an interesting question about Gaidar’s poisioning:

The first thing he did when he became conscious enough to make his own decisions was to fly back to Moscow. Mr. Gaidar apparently feels safer receiving medical treatment close to the Kremlin than he does abroad. That fact should give Westerners who assume that the Russian government sanctioned these awful crimes pause.

I don’t really have the answers (sorry!).

Except to say that Gaidar’s poisoning should remind us all that Russia is a complex and multi-faceted country. It’s also a country beset with a lawlessness which gives ample opportunity for any political or economic faction to take matters into its own hands – with often violent results.

We’d do well to remember that when considering Alexander Litvinenko’s murder as well, rather than opting for the kneejerk – and oh so tempting – response of blaming Vladimir Putin personally.

Gaidar poisoned by enemies of Russia is a post from: Siberian Light

“The party elected me leader, and as the leader I must carry out the party’s assignment to run for president,” Zyuganov said at a news conference where he presented Communist candidates for the upcoming Moscow City Duma elections. “If the party assigns me to run, I am ready to run.”

Zyuganov’s remarks signaled a change of heart from last year’s presidential election, which he skipped after his party’s weak showing in the 2003 State Duma elections. Putin overwhelmingly won re-election.

This is sensible politics from Zyuganov. He avoided running in the last election because (a) he didn’t have a hope of winning and didn’t want to embarass himself, and (b) wanted to demonstrate to Putin that he wasn’t directly challenging him, so that the Communists could better work with the Kremlin.

In 2008, though, Putin (probably) won’t be standing. If nothing unforseen happens over the next few years, Putin and the Kremlin retain their current standing with the electorate, and no liberal challenger rises to mount a significant challenge, he’ll hope to take advantage of the Communists core vote and any protest vote to gain a share of 20-30% and re-establish the Communist Party as a force in Russian politics. I’d say that, given the weakness of the other opposition parties at the moment, he has a fair chance of succeeding.

On the other hand, if something dramatic does happen – perhaps Putin’s nominated replacement will garner little support, and/or a real challenge does arise from an electoral candidate such as Mikhail Kasyanov, the Zyuganov will look at the Presidential race and consider it wide open. In such a scenario, where the electorate may well be divided, he will consider, he has as good a chance of winning the big job as anyone else.

If, by chance, someone like Kasyanov gains a big lead, then my first scenario will come back into play – Zyuganov will look to gain 20-30% of the vote, and re-establish the Communist party as a force in Russian politics again.

By declaring himself in the race early he will be hoping to gradually build momentum through pecking away at Putin’s government. I’d expect to see the Communists heading up and taking the credit for an increasing number of populist protests marches over the coming months as they try to woo those dissatisfied with Putin, and build a base from which to mount a serious challenge in 2008..

Communist leader Zyuganov to run for President is a post from: Siberian Light

Freedom of movement is the biggest practical problem. True, movement generally is still quite restricted in Russia – for example, the need for residential permits means that many people who have moved to Moscow are living there illegally and have limited legal rights – but the issues facing closed cities are a class apart. Roemer Lemaître of the Belgian Institute for International Law [pdf file] observes that:

Apart from the right to freedom of movement the entry and residency restrictions imposed by the ZATO Law infringe directly or indirectly on a considerable number of other rights belonging to natural and legal persons resident within the ZATO as well as to outsiders. Identity checks and searches of bags and vehicles upon entry or exit from the ZATO run afoul of the right to privacy (Article 17 of the ICCPR and Article 8 of the ECHR). According to the same provisions, the right to family life might be violated if someone is not allowed to live with his/her close family because he/she did not get the required security clearance. Limitations on property rights (especially those that largely exclude property rights for outsiders) contradict Article 1 of the First Protocol to the ECHR.

Foreigners also face many restrictions, as this news report about the announcement that the mining city of Norilsk was to become a closed city indicates:

Under the restrictions, as of Monday the city is closed to all non-Russians – except Belarusians. Any foreigner wishing to travel to Norilsk must first obtain special permission from the FSB, the Russian state security police.

Lebed stated that he will demand that all foreigners – whether living as residents or presently visiting – leave Norilsk.

The restrictions placed on residents in closed cities also directly inhibit their ability to participate fully in the democratic process – such as it is in Russia these days. The role of the media, in particular, is heavily restricted:

Federal and local mass media have no access to closed cities. Besides, local media are poorly developed, scanty and usually controlled either by agencies that they belong to, or by commercial price of information. Almost the whole volume of information flow in and out of ZATOs is censoring in order to assure its safety for ZATOs system’ existence. None of independent pressmen are allowed to visit ZATOs.

I haven’t specifically seen any sources mentioning it, but I would imagine that freedom of association – for example, in the sense of the ability to join protests – is also heavily restricted.

No other democracy today has closed cities. Today, with the exception of Russia, they are the preserve of crackpot dictatorships, like North Korea. Even China doesn’t feel the need to close off whole cities from its own people.

Unless there is something that Russia and North Korea know that the rest of the world doesn’t, I think it is safe to conclude that closed cities are no longer necessary for security. And, if that is the case, then Russia’s justification for restricting the human rights of almost 2 million of its own citizens rings hollow.

Closed cities and the Democratic Deficit is a post from: Siberian Light

Asked if there should be a referendum about whether he should run for a third term, Putin replied:

“I see my task as to create the conditions for the country’s long-term development. Therefore I view any radical changes to the law, above all the Russian Federation’s constitution, as inadvisable.”

“My task as I see it is not to sit in the Kremlin for ever, so that people always see the same face on the TV, on channels one, two or three. As for me personally, as they say in the military: ‘I’ll find my place in line’.”

And then, as if he hadn’t done enough, when someone later asked him to elaborate, he added:

”Let’s preserve the intrigue”

I’m still pretty certain he’s not going to stand for President again in 2008 – although I wouldn’t necessarily rule out a campaign in 2012 – but really wouldn’t be surprised to see a fudge which allows him to remain in a powerfully influential role, a la Jiang Zemin in China. But, let’s face it, I’m as much in the dark as every other Kremlinologist

Reaction in Russia to his televised performance – his fourth in as many years – seems positive. RIA Novosti political commentator Vasily Kononenko was particularly impressed that Putin had reconfirmed his image as a responsible leader:

I will point out what seemed most important to me. During the three-hour call-in show Putin demonstrated that he was in excellent physical shape. He showed high erudition, and responded without hesitation to the most challenging questions. For example, he answered a question about the situation in the university of the transpolar town of Vorkuta. When asked about the luxurious private residences that are being built with public money in republics in the south of Russia, the president showed that he is on top of this situation as well. He admitted that theft was taking place, but promised that this evil would be dealt with.

International commentators were somewhat less kind, however. Nick Paton Walsh of The Guardian noted that:

Mr Putin yesterday appeared distracted and tired at times when answering 60 questions sent in by SMS, email and a link-up with 12 Russian towns.

The overall impression I got of the interview was that it was yet another piece of inconsequential fluff, put out for public consumption, an impression reinforced by incidents where Putin, when asked about a minor local issue, puffed out his chest and firmly stated that he, personally, would act to resolve the situation by telling someone else to do something:

In a letter, Karachentseva wrote that she and other villagers had to walk 300 meters to the nearest well to bring water to their houses, despite the fact that money to build a water pipe system had been promised from the regional budget.

“The issue of submitting candidacies for your governor’s post is being considered now,” Putin said. “The documents for the incumbent governor are ready, but have not been sent. And they will not be sent, until he solves this problem.”

This is all very well, but the best thing that Putin could do for Russia right now is to once and for all end the speculation over his future and set a precedent for tranparent politics.

Putin once again muddies waters on his future is a post from: Siberian Light

Cast your minds back to the original trial, earlier this year, and you’ll remember the judges droning on for day after day as they painstakingly read out every word of their judgment.  Back then, they wanted to drag out the climax of the trail as long as possible as an attempt to dilute the media’s attention.

All of a sudden, though, it’s Khodorkovsky who wants to drag things out as long as possible.

Mr Khodorkovsky, dressed in jeans and a brown suede jacket, told the court: "I cannot defend my interests in the appeal without a lawyer familiar with this case."

The move angered state prosecutor Dmitry Shokhin, who called it "a banal attempt to stretch out the court hearing".

Mr Khodorkovsky’s legal team say they have yet to receive an agreed record of the original trial.

Why this sudden reluctance to face his day in court?  Because Khodorkovsky has found a loophole in the law that will allow him to stand for election to the State Duma – and the loophole won’t close until his appeal is complete.  Unfortunately for Khodorkovsky, though, the election is in December, and the appeal trial is extremely unlikely – under normal circumstances at least – more than a few weeks.  So, expect an avalanche of delaying tactics from the Khodorkovsky camp, while the prosecutors in turn attempt to hurry things along.

Both camps, meanwhile, are waging a merry little media war, each trying to convince the world that Khodorkovsky is a martyr that the people will support in droves, or a chancer who has no real chance of halting the grinding wheels of Russian justice.

Protests, both pro- and anti- Khodorkovsky, are continuing to hit the streets hard.  Neeka’s Backlog provides an eyewitness report (and another here) and a series of photos of this weekend’s events.  She finishes off with this comment, which seems to demonstrate that perhaps Khodorkovsky doesn’t actually have all that much support among the Russian public… but that if protests against him continue, Putin may play right into his hands.

The most interesting thing about the rally was this: if it hadn’t been for all the police, and OMON, and the mad honking of the soccer fans, the pro-Khodorkovsky rally would’ve gone virtually unnoticed. Why Putin is giving all the publicity to the people everyone considers his enemies is beyond me.

That’s very nice of him, I think, though somewhat silly.

Finally, it looks as though Khodorkovksy may be starting a trend. Ex Intelligence Department Colonel Vladimir Kvachkov, who is accused of trying to assassinate energy oligarch Anatoly Chubais is also considering standing for election, according to Kommersant.

Khodorkovsky roundup is a post from: Siberian Light

"I  am absolutely confident that they will not allow me to run. But if I receive  letters from people whose opinions are important for me, I will agree,  even  being  aware of the fact that, firstly, they will not let me win  the  elections,  and, secondly, that renewed repression will follow,"  Khodorkovsky’s  lawyer Yury Shmidt quoted the former Yukos CEO as saying.

According to a report in Vedmosti, quoted by RIA Novosti, several senior liberal politicians have already asked Khodorkovsky to run. 

At first glance, the chances of Khodorkovsky running for the Duma would seem absurd.  After all, he’s in jail.  However, the deputy head of the Central Election Commission has gone on record to confirm that Khodorkovsky is eligible to stand in the by-election, although he does cast some doubt on whether he will actually be able to:

"Under the law, he [Khodorkovsky] has this right. Time will show if he is registered [on time]," Deputy Chairman of the commission Oleg Vilyashev told reporters on Wednesday, commenting on press reports that some right-wing politicians had advised Khodorkovsky, 42, to run for a seat in the lower chamber of parliament, the State Duma, in a Moscow by-election.

Vilyashev went on to clarify that Khodorkovsky was eligible because, although he had been convicted, his appeal against the conviction had not yet been confirmed.

If Khodorkovsky does stand for election (is allowed to stand for election?) and goes on to win a seat in the Duma, this will really set the cat amongst the pigeons in Russian politics.  It would show that Khodorkovsky is a credible challenger to Putin (or whoever is nominated to succeed Putin) in an electoral contest.

If Khodorkovsky were to become a Duma representative, it would pose a real question as to his legal status.  As a Duma representative, Khodorkovsky would have immunity from prosecution, guaranteed under the Constitution. 

1. Deputies to the Federation Council and deputies to the State Duma shall possess immunity throughout their term in office. A deputy may not be detained, arrested, searched except when detained in the act of perpetrating a crime, and may not be subject to personal search except when such search shall be authorized by law to ensure the safety of other people.
2. The question of stripping a deputy of immunity shall be decided on the recommendation of the Prosecutor-General of the Russian Federation by the corresponding chamber of the Federal Assembly.

I’m certainly no expert on Russian law, though, so I have to say I have no idea as to whether this applies to someone who has already been convicted of a crime, but is appealing the verdict.  I’d imagine it’s probably something that Russian lawyers don’t agree on, though, and it could spark yet another huge legal case.

I’m still in shock about this announcement, and these are just my initial reactions.  Take them for what you will and bear in mind that Khodorkovsky still has to overcome three major obstacles:

• First, Khodorkovsky must persuade himself that it is worth running and that he wants to take this risk – especially when he considers that his popularity is greater outside of Russia than it is within Russia.  If he harbours political ambitions and loses in what is perceived as a fair fight, this could destroy his political career. 
• Second, the Central Election Commission must confirm that he is eligible to run.  His opponents will place huge obstacles in his way but he appears to have the law on his side.
• Finally, he must actually win the election…

Update:  I’d been meaning to post on the news that Khodorkovsky was recently moved to a new cell with 10 other inmates, but the news that he might stand for election superceded it.  The change of cell means that not only is Khodorkovsky now living in far more crowded accomodation, but has lost most of his priviliges (fridge, tv, etc).

Earlier today, speculation as to the motives for the move centred around Left Turn, an article that Khodorkovsky had recently written.  Prison officials denied that the move was in response to the article, and explainted that he had been moved because his original cell was being "renovated."  This explanation was, as you would expect, greeted with much scepticism. 

In the light of today’s news, I’m forced to wonder if the Kremlin somehow got news that Khodorkovsky was considering standing for election, and decided to give him just a tiny warning of their power over him…

Or is that just me being overly cynical again?

Update 2: This excellent overview report in The Moscow Times gives a few further details, including the district in which Khodorkovsky may run:

Analysts said the Kremlin would be unlikely to allow Khodorkovsky to run, since he would have a good chance of winning in the Universitetsky district, an area that is home to many of the city’s intelligentsia.

Update 3: Nothing much more to write at this stage – the only key variable at the moment is whether Khodorkovsky decides to run or not, and we’ll have to wait for the man himself to find the outcome of that decision. 

In the meantime, two posts worth checking out on the affair:  First, Robert at Publius Pundit notes that yesterday also brought the announcement that a group of Far Eastern lawmakers have drafted an amendment to the constitution that would allow Putin to run for a third consecutive term:

Maybe we should just go ahead and change his title to “President-for-life Putin” while we’re ahead of the game. That way it won’t come as any shock when the rubberstamp Duma eventually approves a constitutional amendment like this.

And Lyndon at Scraps of Moscow has a roundup of all the major stories in Russia yesterday, including the Khodorkovsky will he won’t he, including plenty of links to Russian news sources on the story in both Russian and English.

Khodorkovsky to stand for election? is a post from: Siberian Light

WTF?  Well, quoting Sergei Markov in RIA Novosti:

"Oligarchs, who made a pile during Yeltsin’s tenure, dream of revanche. They are in the same boat with Yeltsin’s top officials, for example Kasyanov. So, if a realistic political project is ripe, they will need Yeltsin.”

Almost none of the many pundits who have been speculating that Putin might make a loophole in the constitution allowing Presidents to serve as many terms as they like, but only two consecutively, have followed the logic through to assess the chances of former President Boris Yeltsin becoming President of Russia once again in 2008. 

Why, I wonder?  Well, probably because he is a drunk who mismanaged the country and everyone in Russia knows it.  Former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev ran for the Presidency of Russian once – back in 1996, I think.  He gained around 1% of the popular vote, and I’d bet good money that Yeltsin would struggle to match that showing.

Sure, a bunch of oligarchs who are out in the cold under Putin’s leadership hanker for a return to the good old days of Yeltsin’s presidency when they were the ones taking free advantage of Russia’s natural resources.  But they hanker for the freedom, not the man who gave it to them.  They certainly aren’t so foolish as to think that Boris Yeltsin is the only man they can use as a puppet President – there are plenty of candidates under consideration who are in much ruder health than Yeltsin.

Another daft idea put to bed. 

Yeltsin's political comeback is a post from: Siberian Light