Numbers are difficult to judge, but it appears that around 5-6,000 people protested earlier in the day, breaking off into a smaller group of around 1,000 that then went on to Triumfalnaya Square. It was there that most of the trouble took place, and according to RIA Novosti, more than 250 people were arrested, including Sergei Mitrokhin, Yabloko’s deputy chairman and former Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov.

“I am outraged at the lawlessness that we saw on 4 December, with the false elections, and on 5 December,” Mitrokhin told reporters. “I am ready to call for the entire government, headed by Putin, to resign.”

Navalny tweeted this picture, saying "With my lads on the police bus. They all say hi,"

Protests were also held in St Petersburg which attracted around 1,000 people, 150 of whom were arrested, and smaller protests were held in a number of other cities across the country.

The protests prompted counter-protests from pro-Kremlin activists, many from Nashi.

The protests, and criticisms of fraud throughout the election, have prompted some response from the Kremlin, albeit a pretty limited one. President Dmitry Medvedev has announced that there will be an investigation of accusations of electoral fraud claims, although he seemed fairly dismissive of most of the claims and took pains to stress that this was something that should be done after every election as a matter of procedure. Putin hasn’t directly commented on the protests, although he doesn’t seem surprised about protests and criticism if this Moscow Times report is anything to go by:

Corruption and embezzlement “are not a cliche for the ruling party, they are a cliche for the authorities” in general, Putin said.

“Think back to Soviet times and the people who were in power back then. All of them were also called thieves and bribe-takers,” Putin said, in a clear nod to United Russia’s reputation as the “party of crooks and thieves,” Interfax reported.

(An interesting choice, by the way, to compare United Russia’s Government to the Soviet Government. It’ll play well with those in the domestic audience who crave stability and familiarity, but it’ll wind up amny protestors and the foreign audience no end.)

Speaking of the foreign audience, there has been a quite excitable reaction from the international press, many of whom seem to be breathlessly hoping for a Russian Arab Spring (no longer do they refer to a colored revolution…) and choosing to focus on the crackdown and the sending of troops in to secure Moscow. My favourite headline was this, from the never knowingly under-stated Fox News: Carnage Breaks Out at Moscow Protests as Youths Square Off.

For all the hype, it’s almost possible to imagine that this week’s protests will build any real momentum. No matter how much breathless reporting we see, the protestors number no more than a few thousand in a city of millions.

However, the protests may have a longer term impact in raising the profile of election fraud among the wider population and in exposing some small cracks in the Kremlin’s resolve ahead of next year’s Russian Presidential election, which has the potential to be a much closer affair. You can imagine that there would be considerable anger if Putin were to pick up 51-52% of the vote in a first round ballot that sees the same obvious manipulation of ballots that we’ve seen this election in Chechnya and other similarly sycophantic regions.

The Communist Party’s candidate Gennady Zyuganov is most likely to finish second in the Presidential election. He and his supporters will have good reason to be very upset if he is denied a run-off due to electoral fraud. If Zyuganov has any sense, he’ll be closely studying these Moscow protests and thinking about how much impact they could have if they were backed by the full weight of the Russian Communist Party.

Then maybe the press will have something to get breathless (and even more confused than normal) over.

Moscow Protests: For now or the future? is a post from: Siberian Light

By and large, election observers felt that the ballot itself was run fairly across the country, BUT, there were a few ballots in which the results were just absurd. For example, in Chechnya, 93.31% of voters went to the polls (national average 60.2%) and 99.48% of voters chose United Russia (national average 49.54%).

Everyone knows that the result was fixed in Chechnya. It’s tempting to laugh this off as Chechnya being, well, Chechnya and to think that because it’s just a small part of Russia it doesn’t really impact on the election result. But then I noticed a few other abnormal results, and wondered what impact they had collectively on the election.

So, I decided to identify every region where United Russia took more than 80% of the vote, and turn that region into an entirely average region.

Here’s a list of all the regions where more than 80% of people voted for United Russia.

Chechnya – Turnout 93.31%, Voted for UR 99.48%
Mordovia – Turnout 90.58%, Voted for UR 91.62%
Dagestan – Turnout 78.64%, Voted for UR 91.44%
Ingushetia – Turnout 72.72%, Voted for UR 90.96%
Karachey-Cherkessia – Turnout 80.31%, Voted for UR 89.84%
Tuva – Turnout 70.68%, Voted for UR 85.29%
Kabardino-Balkaria – Turnout 90.91%, Voted for UR 81.91%

In total, 3.3 million people voted in these seven regions, and 3 million of them voted for United Russia. In total across the country, United Russia scored 32.8 million votes which means that these seven republics, representing less than 4% of the electorate, provided almost 10% of United Russia’s total votes.

United Russia secures 99.47% of the vote in Chechnya

If that happened, then only 1.4 million people would have voted for United Russia in these regions, bringing United Russia’s overall total down to 31.2 million nationally.

Which means that instead of getting 49.54% of the vote, United Russia would have got 47.12%.

Which I’m pretty sure isn’t enough for a majority in the Duma.

And, if replicated, might be the difference between a first round victory for Putin and being forced into a second round runoff in the 2012 Russian Presidential election.

Just sayin.

How United Russia stole victory is a post from: Siberian Light

As expected, it provided ample opportunity for Kadyrov to cover himself in glory – playing the whole match up front, he scored two goals against the mighty Brazil. His performance would have been slightly more impressive if he hadn’t made a bit of a tit of himself missing two penalties – one saved and the other ballooning past the right hand post.

As the Guardian tactfully says: “At the final whistle, though, it was 6-4 to the Brazilians who, despite valiant efforts, could not hide their superiority.” Watch the video highlights – they’re a hoot.

Although the highlights may be fun, and Kadyrov certainly got to have his fun, the fact that the match took place at all is profoundly depressing.

The money to pay all these Brazilian superstars came from somewhere – and I’ll bet most of it was illegally obtained. Brazil’s players, along with Ruud Gullit, should be ashamed for taking part in this charade of a match, for taking stolen money, and allowing a bloody dictator the opportunity to use football to bolster not only his monstrous ego, but the popularity of his evil regime. They have done the Chechen people a disservice.

Ramzan Kadyrov scores two goals against stupid Brazil is a post from: Siberian Light

Terek, who play in the Russian Premier league, narrowly avoided relegation last season, so Gullit will certainly have his work cut out for him.  Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov, who is thought to be the man behind the move, has set a pretty high target for Gullit though – he wants the team to finish in the top 8 next season, and ideally to qualify for Europe.

Where the money is coming from is unclear.  There is much more money in Russian football these days, but Terek aren’t exactly a major club.  But it certainly sounds like Terek have a well funded backer – before Gullit they courted former Spartak Moscow legend Oleg Romantsev as well as former Spanish international Victor Munoz (who briefly took the job as Terek manager, lasting no more than a few weeks).  Now, as well as signing Gullit, they’re talking big about a transfer deal involving one of the world’s ten best strikers, allegedly playing in the English Premier League at the moment.

Gullit was one of the world’s finest ever players, but as a manager he hasn’t been a spectacular success.  He did reasonably well at Chelsea, but didn’t really impress at Newcastle, Feyenoord or, most recently, LA Galaxy.  In fact, he’s been out of management entirely since being leaving Galaxy in 2008, leading to speculation that he’s just moving to Russia for the quick and easy money.

This will be a great boost for the fans of Terek, but I can’t help but think that Gullit doesn’t know what he has let himself in for.  For one thing, there’s the fact that he’ll be working in the murky underbelly of Russian football with murderous dictators.

But even aside from that, Gullit’s only successes have been when he has worked with a team of high quality players – anything less than the best to work with, he’s struggled.  Surely even the greatest of football romantics can’t surely see Ruud Gullit taking a struggling team from a war torn Russian province and turning them into a team of European contenders.  Can they?

Ruud Gullit signs as Terek Grozny Manager is a post from: Siberian Light

A violent confrontation between the motorcades of President Ramzan Kadyrov, backed by the Kremlin, and Badruddi Yamadayev, brother of a militia leader backed by the Russian Defence Ministry, threatens to be the spark that ignites yet more conflict in Chechnya.

Traffic jam turns to gunfire

The two rival motorcades (totalling close to a hundred cars) had the misfortune to be travelling in opposite directions on the same road, at the same time. And, in a war-torn country where image is everything, neither would back down to let the other pass.

(To get an idea of what a 50 car motorcade in Chechnya looks like these days, take a look at this video of another Ramzan Kadyrov convoy. In particular, look at the high performance cars – apparently, there are “at least nine Porsche Cayenne vehicles, two BMW 5 Series, two Mercedes S-Class, and eight Lexus GX 470 (or Toyota 100 Land Cruiser)” in the convoy. Cars like that don’t come cheap).

Anyway, one thing led to another and, soon, heavily armed bodyguards were exchanging fire. The Chechen authorities deny that anyone was killed in the skirmish, but the Reuters news agency has reported that up to 18 people – both bodyguards and civilians – were killed in the battle.

Anxious to avoid massive bloodshed, Kadyrov himself apparently stepped in to calm the situation. According to the Times, before they left the scene, both Kadyrov and Yamadayev exchanged a bear hug.

Yamadayev under seige

But looks are often deceiving in Chechnya. Kadyrov might have sensed that a battle on the road was in his interests but, once out of range, he ordered 300 Chechen police to surround the base of the Vostok Battalion, headed by Yamadayev’s elder brother, Sulim Yamadayev. A three day seige ensued, during which two members of the Vostok battallion were killed.

At the same time, Kadyrov began a war of words, accusing rival Yamadayev and his brother of abuductions and murders. In a statement he announced that:

“As president I have summoned law enforcement heads and asked them why the Vostok battalion is ‘commanded’ by Badrudi Yamadayev – a man who should be in jail, but instead is walking around armed to the teeth and committing further crimes.”

The Speaker of the Chechen Parliament, a Kadyrov ally, has also called for Yamadayev to step down as commander of the Vostok battallion.

According to media reports, Badruddi Yamadayev escaped the seige and is in hiding.

Is the Kremlin losing control?

Putin’s reputation as a strongman is built in part on his ability to bring stability to the Russian Caucasus, and his ability to bring Chechnya to heel under a puppet regime led by Kadyrov.

But a violent confrontation of this magnitude in Chechnya is a massive embarrassment for the Kremlin and for Putin personally.

At best, this month’s conflict demonstrates that Kremlin no longer has control of the situation in Chechnya.

At worst, though, the conflict could demonstrate that the Kremlin does not have control over even its own Defense Ministry. The Vostok Battallion is backed by the Defence Ministry and, as such, is the only (legal) militia in Chechnya not under the direct control of either Kadyrov or the Kremlin.

As Chechen analyst Ruslan Martagov notes:

“One is under the orders of the presidential administration, the other is under the orders of the Defense Ministry. What prevents them from summoning both these people and telling them, ‘You take your troops here, and you take your troops there’? This would take about 20 minutes,” Martagov says. “Either they don’t want to do that, or they have absolutely no control over the situation there.”

Scary.

Is Chechnya sliding back into chaos? is a post from: Siberian Light

Tonight, for the first time in more than a decade, top-flight Russian football will be played in Grozny, capital of war-torn Chechnya.

Terek Grozny, the city’s professional football team won promotion to the Russian Premier League last year and, after years of playing in exile, have finally been granted permission to play their home games inside of Chechnya.

The match between hosts Terek Grozny and visitors Krylya Sovietov Samara has attracted so much attention that the match will even overshadow this weekend’s match between last year champions Zenit St Petersburg and runners up Spartak Moscow.

Excitement

To celebrate, Chechnya’s Prime Minister Ramzan Kadyrov has announced that tickets for the match will be free to home fans, who will be able to take their first look at the inside of Grozny’s rebuilt 10,300 seater stadium. He’s also promised that Chechen fans will show “the real meaning of Chechen hospitality.”

Terek fans might be celebrating, but Leonid Slutsky, the Samara coach doesn’t sound entirely convinced the decision to host games in Grozny was a good one, though.

“If the FA decided that Terek should play their home games in Grozny, then so be it. I just hope they don’t change their mind a few weeks later and we would be the only ones who had played in Grozny.”

Chechnya is safe

Samara’s travelling fans will understandably be nervous ahead of tonight’s game – two wars in 15 years and an ongoing low-level insurgency aren’t exactly reassuring.

But Vladimir Putin, Russia’s outgoing President, has a lot riding on this game, as bringing Chechnya back into Russian society has been one of the key promises underpinning his eight years at the top. Any trouble tonight would reflect badly on him.

The Guardian newspaper reports that the Kremlin put heavy pressure on the Russian FA to allow Terek to host home games in Grozny, and demonstate that peace and stability has returned to the one time rebel capital.

You can bet that the police and army will be out in force today, and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is confident that the game will go well.

“I can give a 100-percent guarantee that there are no terrorist threats here. I’m confident that the ability to see Premier League matches will be the most precious gift for our people.”

Terek’s Troubled History

Formed in 1946, disbanded in 1994, and re-formed in 2001, Terek Grozny have had a troubled history. But not a history entirely without success.

For much of the past two decades, Terek have been forced to play their home matches in exile, in Pyatigorsk. But since reforming in 2001, Terek have gone from strength to strength.

The high point of the club’s history surely came in 2004, when Terek Grozny stunned Samara to win the Russian Cup. The victory gave them a slot in European football’s prestigeous UEFA Cup. Sadly, after a qualifying round victory against Polish club Lech Poznan, Terek found the Swiss team FC Basel too strong for them in the first round.

2004 also saw Terek promoted to the Russian Premier League for the first time – an astounding feat for a club that was only in its fourth season since re-forming. Sadly the Premier League proved too tough for Terek during 2005, and they were relegated.

But two more seasons in the Russian First Division have given them the opportunity to build a solid, competitive side who, especially in front of their own fans, will be hoping to do stick around in the Premier League for quite some time.

Top flight football returns to Chechnya is a post from: Siberian Light

A couple of scenarios could be in play. The first is that Putin has decided to gain hard cash by putting fissile material on the black market, which is not only insane but counterproductive. After all, Putin has his own insurgencies in the Caucasus, and the material could just as easily find its way there rather that against Putin’s enemies. The second possibility is even more frightening — which is that Russia has lost control over its nuclear materials and wants to keep the West from discovering it.

I think discarding the first option is pretty easy, too.� Putin has no need of hard cash – even if he is approaching retirement, he’s got plenty of far better ways to earn some ‘under the counter’ income.� And Russia as a country isn’t exactly scrabbling around for hard cash, floating as it does on a�mighty lake of black gold.

The second option is far, far more�plausible and, I think, the most likely option.� Nuclear security in Russia is lax- there simply is no denying it.� Bribery and corruption is endemic, and the people guarding nuclear material are -�by and large -�poor.� Beyond fear, they have very little incentive�to turn down a bundle of thousand rouble notes�in return for�looking�the other way.�

A quick Google search shows that nuclear material has been going missing from Russian stores for a decade or more.� A Guardian news story shows that Chechens might have some radioactive material.�

One final option that should be considered�(even though its not one I personally subscribe to) is that the�Russian government is deliberately making use of its arsenal of nuclear material to further its political agenda.� This could range from trying to strike fear into the hearts of rogue operatives, to intimidation of friendly (and not so friendly states) by hinting that a dirty bomb is a possibility, to simply trying to persuade Western donors to pay for the cleanup, disposal or security of nuclear material.�

Has Russia lost control of its nuclear weapons? is a post from: Siberian Light

Iran is secretly training Chechen rebels in sophisticated terror techniques to enable them to carry out more effective attacks against Russian forces, the Sunday Telegraph can reveal.

Teams of Chechen fighters are being trained at the Revolutionary Guards’ Imam Ali training camp, located close to Tajrish Square in Teheran, according to Western intelligence reports.

In addition to receiving training in the latest terror techniques, the Chechen volunteers undergo ideological and political instruction by hardline Iranian mullahs at Qom.

If it’s true, of course. Iran does some pretty stupid things from time to time, but is it really going to get caught offering terrorist training to the enemies of its only real superpower?

Well, actually, I wouldn’t put it past them.

Iran training Chechens to fight in Russia is a post from: Siberian Light

The Russian government’s verdict is that the election was quite clearly a success.

“The elections to the parliament of the Chechen republic being held today are smoother than ever. The voting process has been organized properly,” [Federation Council Deputy Speaker Alexander] Torshin said.

On the other hand, this quote from the European Union pretty much encapsulates the way the rest of the world feels about this election – we all know it’s corrupt, but don’t think Chechnya is worth upsetting Russia over, so will find something blandly concilliatory to say:

“We welcome the fact that the elections took place without violence and we hope it will be a step toward a peaceful political process in the future,” said Emma Udwin, spokeswoman on external affairs at the EU’s executive body.

“That’s what we want to see,” she added.

“There hasn’t been much information on the way this election was conducted,” Udwin said, adding that neither the EU nor Europe’s OSCE security organization had sent monitors to the conflict-torn Caucasus region.

She is right, though, when she says the elections were peaceful. Which is progress of a sort.

Chechen elections is a post from: Siberian Light

Today’s Washington Times features a story on Russia’s successful test of a maneuverable re-entry warhead. While this may bolster the national pride of Russian scientists and provide opponents of U.S. missile defenses with another talking point, the billions of rubles spent do nothing to address the real threats to Russia’s territorial integrity and security.

I think Charlie is right that the biggest threat to Russia right now is that of instability and militant Islam on it’s Southern borders – although I’m not sure that I’d go so far to suggest that Siberia may become China’s most northerly province. But I do think that he perhaps underestimates the benefits that nuclear weapons bring to Russia, and the relative cheapness of updating the nuclear arsenal compared with addressing deeper, more structural problems such as corruption in the military.

Spending money on addressing the structural problems that beset Russia’s convential military forces (“conventional”, “nuclear” – I feel like I’m back in the Cold War) is, without doubt, going to be of immense benefit to Russia. But restructuring the army is an expensive, and long term project. The problems of addressing corruption in society as a whole are going to be even more challenging. Spending money on nuclear weapons, on the other hand, is, comparatively cheap, and carries large short term benefits (or, to put that more precisely, avoids a great deal of short term damage).

I know it’s a cliche, but nuclear weapons really do carry cachet on the world stage. There is a belief among many states that nuclear power buys influence in global affairs. In the UK, where I live, updating our nuclear arsenal, small though it may be, has become a hot political topic. There are plenty for updating the arsenal, and plenty for turning our nuclear submarines into scrap, but the government seems convinced of the necessity to upgrade. I have no idea of the situation in France, but China is looking to boost it’s nuclear stockpile, and the US isn’t exactly neglecting nuclear research either. (And that’s before we even consider states like Israel, Iran and North Korea). These countries don’t spend all this money on nuclear bombs for fun – they spend it because they respect the nuclear arsenals of their competitors, and want to make sure that their arsenals are respsected also.

I personally don’t buy into their logic, but it is the logic that they use. And they are the people playing the game. It’s what they think that really matters in interstate relations.

One of the main reasons that Russia faces trouble on its borders is the general perception that it is a weak state – a belief shared not just by other states, but by disaffected groups within Russia itself. If Russia’s nuclear arsenal loses the respect of other states around the world, Russia loses respect (in the sense of fear, rather than love, of course) One that respect goes, so does a big chunk of what remains of Russia’s influence and bargaining power in the world. States hostile to Russia will take note of this, and feel emboldened to further provoke instability on and within Russia’s borders.

Although Russia does need to invest in long term projects to ensure its security, it also needs to spend a considerable amount of time, effort and, yes, money, on firefighting. It is hard to push the Cold War to the back of our minds, but perhaps in the early 21st Century, we would do better to look at Russia’s nuclear investments more as a defensive, rather than an agressive stance.

Should Russia waste its money on nuclear weapons is a post from: Siberian Light