Russian Aircraft Carrier Admiral Kuznetsov

At a press conference Rogozin – Russia’s straight-talking former ambassador to NATO – told reporters that by next year “production capacity will allow us to build six submarines and an aircraft carrier every year”.

He went on to say that this would increase Russian naval production levels beyond those of the Soviet Union.

A Realistic proposal

The announcement follows a similar one, four years ago, that Russia would build six new aircraft carriers and it’s worth noting that no actual construction has begun since that announcement.

So, it’s not surprising that today’s news has been greeted with skepticism from analysts, who argue that this level of production is way beyond Russia’s capacity – or, for that matter, the capacity of any country in the world. Streetwise Professor points to the US aircraft carrier programme, and notes that construction of the USS Gerald Ford is expected to take 10 years. If Russia took roughly the same amount of time to build a carrier, then it would have to have at least ten of them in construction at any one time.

The Streetwise Professor points to news about delays in the construction of the new Russian Graney submarines as further evidence that Russia simply isn’t ready to ramp up its production of submarines. Indeed, post-Soviet Russian submarine construction has a very checkered history, and the last major submarine project – the construction of the Russian Nerpa submarine, which was recently leased to India, was beset by problems which ultimately led to the deaths of 20 Russian sailors.

Financial incentive

A Russian Akula II Submarine

But I’m increasingly wondering whether – assuming that production targets can actually be met – the Russian Navy will be the recipient of all of these new submarines. Or whether Russia actually has an eye to meeting the demands of the international market, and plans to set up a cottage industry supplying the world’s navies with state of the art submarines.

Last week I noted that many Asia-Pacific countries were investing heavily in their navies, particularly their submarines, and linked to this interesting article at the Boston Globe.

As well as strong links with India and China, Russia already has deals to supply submarines to Vietnam and to support the development of Taiwan’s navy. Moving further afield, it’s also done a deal with Venezuela to supply submarines.

There’s definitely a market out there for Russian naval technology, and if Russia can ally it to its proven experience elsewhere in the arms trade, this could prove to be a very lucrative market for it indeed.

Six new Russian submarines and a new aircraft carrier – every year is a post from: Siberian Light

A Russian Akula II Submarine

Russia has formally handed over the Nerpa, an Akula class nuclear submarine, to India.

The Nerpa, along with a second Akula submarine to be handed over shortly, will be leased to India for ten years in a deal thought to be worth $2 billion.

Under the terms of the deal, once the ten year deal expires, India has an option to then buy the two submarines outright.

In a ceremonial handover attended by the Indian ambassador, the Indian flag was raised over the submarine – now rechristened the INS Chakra – and control was handed entirely to its Indian crew who, for the first time, set sail without any Russian technical specialists on board.

The Nerpa’s troubled history

Construction of the Nerpa actually began in 1993, shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but was suspended shortly afterwards for lack of funding. It wasn’t until 2004, when an agreement was reached to lease the submarine to India, that construction started again.

The submarine had been due to be transferred to India in 2009, but its transfer was delayed after 20 crewmen were killed in an accident during its sea trials when the Nerpa’s fire suppression system was accidentally set off. Freon gas released by the fire suppression system displaced oxygen from an isolated compartment, suffocating all the crew in the area.

The disaster was blamed on a member of the crew who activated the fire suppression system without authorisation. However, the quality of the construction work was criticised after the accident for being poor. Although many submarines were constructed at the Amur shipyard during the 1980s, the Nerpa was the only one built between 1993 and 2008. Because of the lack of work, many of workers with specialised skills had either left or retired, leaving the construction to a relatively inexperienced workforce. Concerns were also expressed that the metals used in the Nerpa were not good enough quality, having been bought from China at a low cost.

Close Russia-India ties

Picture reprinted with permission from crossed-flag-pins.com

The Nerpa deal is also indicative of increasingly strong ties between India and Russia. As well as this submarine deal, India and Russia have also agreed a number of other major arms sales, including the sale of the Russian Admiral Gorshkov aircraft carrier, which is due to enter service in the Indian Navy in 2013 as the INS Vikramaditya.

Ordinarily, you would expect a country like India to have the patience to wait a few years until its own technology enters service, but its local situation is very unstable – as well as the well-known tensions with Pakistan, there has been a rapid buildup of naval power by most countries in the Asia-Pacific and as one of the two major countries in the region, India has to take care not to be left behind.

As a consequence, many of these deals – such as the Nerpa deal – are designed as a stop-gap to boost the Indian military while it develops technology of its own. The Arihant, an Indian developed and built class of nuclear submarines, is due to enter service in the next few years.

Nerpa Nuclear Submarine delivered to India is a post from: Siberian Light

In a statement, DCNS said: “The advance payment was received several weeks ago and work on the first ship is getting underway. The first ship will be delivered in 2014 and the second in 2015.”

As a part of the deal, Russia will then construct two additional Mistrals itself, after which it not only have four ships – it will presumably also have additional technical knowledge that it can either use to build more similar ships, or which will benefit its own domestic naval shipbuilding programme.

The Mistral is variously referred to as an amphibious assault ship or a helicopter carrier. As well as being able to carry up to 35 light (attack) helicopters or 16 heavy (carrier) helicopters, it is also capable of transporting up to 900 troops or 59 vehicles, including 13 tanks.

It’s purchase will go some way to filling a massive gap in the Russian Navy’s fleet which currently only has a single aircraft carrier – the Admiral Kuznetsov. An additional four Mistral ships will dramatically increase Russia’s ability to project force away from its own borders, particularly over the longer term if plans to introduce additional aircraft carriers by 2027 are realised.

For an excellent overview of Russia’s future plans for its navy, I recommend reading the Geopolitical and Conflict Report’s excellent Update on the Modernization of the Russian Navy.

You can find out more about the Mistral by checking out the RIA Novosti infographic below. Wikipedia also has a detailed overview of the Mistral.

France’s Mistral amphibious assault ship

17:12 06/11/2009 France’s Mistral amphibious assault ship will arrive on an official visit to St. Petersburg on November 23.
Russia is seeking to buy a Mistral-class helicopter carrier worth 400-500 million euros (around $600-$750 mln). >>

Other news of the day

Although Russia remains committed to its own domestic arms industry to both equip its own armed forces and to export arms abroad, it is increasingly active as a buyer on the international arms market. As well as the Mistral deal, it has also recently signed a $100 million deal with German company Rheinmetall to construct a military training facility and a further deal with Italian company Iveco to supply a number of Lynx light military vehicles, despite the fact that they are four times as expensive as Russian produced vehicles.

France begins work on Mistral warships for Russia is a post from: Siberian Light

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told reporters “”We believe it is wrong to suspend Syria’s membership of the Arab League. Those who made this decision have lost a very important opportunity to shift the situation into a more transparent channel.”

To back up its position, Russia has announced that it will honour all of its many (and valuable) arms contracts with the Syrian Government and has sent Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and All Russia (the head of the Russian Orthodox Church) to Syria, where he met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. “I am convinced that your visit will help strengthen the relations between our countries. And it will facilitate a dialog between various cultures of the representatives of various world religions”, Al-Assad gratefully told the Patriarch.

In an attemp to maintain dialog with both parties, Lavrov plans to meet with Syrian opposition leaders, including Burhan Ghalioun, leader of the dissident Syrian National Council (SNC), in Moscow tomorrow. However, he is reportedly planning to tell them to beware of triggering a conflict similar to the one recently played out in Libya, saying “the battle for power can become a goal in itself, but you have to think of your country and people.”

Naturally Burhan Ghalioun doesn’t think much of Russia’s current stance – in an interview with Anba Moscow, Russia’s Arabic language news agency, he said bluntly “it is about time the Russian leadership changed its stance towards a regime which is still ignoring calls to launch reforms and start dialogue with the opposition on a peaceful transition to democracy.”

This is a strong position from Russia, particularly when you consider that pretty much everyone in the rest of the world supports the decision. Even China, which had until today stood firm with Russia in supporting the Syrian Government has today confirmed that it supports the Arab League’s decision to suspend Syria’s membership.

As we noted previously, Russia has invested a lot in the current Syrian regime, and sees it as a valuable ally. As a consequence of this (as well as its general opposition to interventionism by the West), Russia has made a hard-headed decision to stand firm in support of Assad’s Government. A couple of months ago, international resolve looked weak and it looked like Russia’s gambit might pay off. But today it is looking increasingly like a gamble that will leave the Russian Government looking foolish, out of touch, and with very few friends in the Middle East.

Image reproduced with kind permission of crossed-flag-pins.com

Russia condems Arab League for suspending Syria is a post from: Siberian Light

The Brazilian Air Force has a combat capacity way below the country’s economic potential, especially considering how hard it is working to enhance its global political role.

It seems like a lot of South American countries are militarily underpowered compared to their GDP.  Really, that’s a good thing – underpowered but well matched militaries should equal reduced chance of serious conflict.  

But for the arms industry, and particularly the Russian arms industry, this also represents a massive opportunity. It will be interesting to see how this tender develops. 

Russia bids to supply Brazil’s Air Force is a post from: Siberian Light

Winds of Change reports that Russia and India are considering whether to build the next-generation MiG together.

From India’s point of view, a firm development agreement that helps finance Russia’s next-generation plane is one way to restrict Russian cooperation with China along similar lines.

Winds of Change goes on to report that India’s current fourth generation fighters are more than a match for most of their regional rivals’ air forces.

India and Russia to co-operate in developing next-gen MiG? is a post from: Siberian Light

The exercise, which will run for 10 days from October 10th, is based around a counter terrorism scenario, says Indian newspaper New Kerala, and also aims to improve “interoperability” between Russian and Indian forces in preparation for possible future joint peacekeeping missions.

During the simulated war games in Rajasthan, Russian and Indian paratroopers will land in an area occupied by “illegal armed groups” and neutralise “terrorist training bases” and free “hostages” held at a camp.

The training will include the para-dropping of armoured vehicles, anti-tank guided missiles and artillery.

As Taiwan is out of the occasion, this exercise is rather less provocative than the recent exercise with China, which caused some concern in the West. It won’t pass entirely without causing offence though, I’d imagine – Pakistan will no doubt be watching events closely. In particular, they will probably be worried that if India develops an increased counter-terrorism expertise it could affect Pakistan’s future ability to influence events in Kashmir.

New Kerala goes on to note that this week’s exercise, much like the recent exercise in China, is largely designed to showcase Russian arms:

The Russian paratroopers will be equipped with the latest arms in a bid to showcase the equipment for the Indian Army’s top brass. Russian forces will field specialised anti-terror weapons like sniper guns, anti-material rifles and long distance specialised rockets.

I’d imagine that it is this possibility which worries Pakistan the most. And, following a nuclear standoff between the two countries a few years back, the inclusion of a Russian nuclear submarine in the naval component of the exercise probably won’t do much to ease their concerns…

Russian-Indian military exercise begins is a post from: Siberian Light

Russia has cancelled $1.1 billion owed to it by Ethiopia and agreed to let the Horn of Africa country repay a further $160 million over the next 30 years, the state-run Ethiopian News Agency (ENA) said late on Wednesday.

Ethiopian Finance Minister Sufian Ahmed and Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin signed the agreement at a ceremony in Moscow on Monday, ENA said. [...]

In October, the Paris Club of creditor nations cancelled $758 million of Ethiopia’s debt as part of the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative launched in 1996 to ease the burden on the world’s poorest countries.

Cancelling Ethiopia’s debt not long after the Paris Club announcement provides Russia with a very good public reason for its decision.  And I’m sure that a chunk of the $1.1 billion will be redirected towards fighting poverty in Ethiopia, for which we should be thankful. 

However, after Russia recently announced that it was to write off $9.8 billion of Syria’s debt, the Syrian government promptly announced that it was to buy advanced anti-aircraft missiles from Russia.  I’d wager that altruism wasn’t the only Russian motive in Ethiopia either. 

Ethiopia and Eritrea, who have already fought a brutal war, look to be engaging in another arms race.  An arms race which according to former Canadian foreign minister Lloyd Axworthy, the UN’s special envoy for Ethiopia, is being fuelled by the irresponsible behaviour of a number of countries, including Russia:

"There are a lot of countries who should know better who are making good profit off the arms sales and I think some effort through the (U.N. Security) Council to put some limitations on that would be well worth looking at," he said.

(For background on the countries supplying Ethiopia and Eritrea with arms, see this BBC article).

Look out for an announcement sometime soon that the Ethiopian air force is to increase its stock of Sukhoi 27s.

Russia writes off Ethiopian debt is a post from: Siberian Light

Ivanov stated that there were no official negotiations to sell missiles to Syria, but there are several different semiofficial entities in Russia that can negotiate and deliver almost any modern weapon while the authorities turn a blind eye, provided the buyer has the cash.

The latest Russian-Israeli missile crisis has once again highlighted the issue of who (if anyone) really controls the export of sensitive technologies and weapons from Russia. It sometimes seems that exports are only controlled by the greed of arms traders and corrupt bureaucrats.

I’m pretty sure Putin administration is able to tightly control sales of ‘high profile’ weaponry.  It isn’t going to get involved in a deal which upsets the United States without very carefully considering the implications.

But I wonder just how many smaller weapons get sold unbeknownst to the Kremlin.  It only takes a few SAMs in the wrong hands to not only kill hundreds of people, but to cause an international incident.

Who controls the Russian arms trade? is a post from: Siberian Light