It’s bizarre that they decided to pick this fight. They gambled that Putin would not want to up the stakes and keep certain Russo-British affairs separate (i.e. that it would not affect trade or BP), but they seem to have forgotten that Putin is a spy (once a spy, always a spy) and has on a number of occasions pulled rabbits out of hats. Always being ‘predictable’ does not necessarily server ‘his’ interests being so would make him easier to deal with. Only look at how the Chinese are dealing with the US calls for ‘greater clarity’ about their ‘military intentions’! It’s certainly not the Chinese military who are moving and projecting their forces/power West..

I don’t think this has too much to do with the upcoming elections
either. Putin drew his red lines and is showing that he is prepared to push back. NATO and the West have already pushed too far towards Russia for Russia’s comfort. On a more local level, it seems to be a question of respecting Russia’s sovereignty, something which the West seems to respect less and less, especially those who are not ‘allies’.

The whole episode was dumb and there was absolutely no reason for it.

You simply cannot keep your offices open in another country if that country’s government really wants them closed.

But I suspect that the Council, as well as the British Government, recognised that from the outset. Instead, they wanted to publicly make the point that they felt they had done nothing wrong.

I think they always knew that they would ‘lose’ this battle, in the sense that the offices would close. Instead, they were aiming for a PR victory on the international stage.

Whether they have achieved that or not, I’m not sure.

Kyle