A couple of weeks ago, I mentioned in the Weekly News Roundup that China and Russia had postponed talks about their 2005 joint military exercise. The explanation given at the time was ‘technical reasons’.
According to Kommersant, the actual reason for the delay is that, instead of an anti-terrorist exercise as Russia had envisaged, China is trying to turn the exercise into a mock invasion and occupation of Taiwan.
[The exercise was] to take place on the Yellow Sea coast. Initially, the plan was to practice cooperation in the struggle against terrorism. However, Beijing changed the exercises format and it will look like the two armies occupying Taiwan. [...]
The Russian have chosen Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region saying the region is very problematic and its nearness to the Central Asia. In fact, the Russian Headquarter wanted to use the Russian air base situated in Kyrgyzstan that Putin launched last year. It was used only once, during anti-terrorist exercises of the countries that are the members of the Collective Security Organization.
But Beijing refused. And offered another territory: Zhejiang. The Russians understood that was a trap. Taiwan is close to that region. The combined exercises would look very much provocative and they would make react not only Taiwan, but also United States and Japan. [...]
At the suit of Russia, the location was changed. Now it is Chandong. But the Chinese tried to change the exercises format. Now they want to broaden the structure of the involved troops. They want to introduce the marines and combat ships: three big assault landing ships, a cruiser and a submarine. So it will look like they will be making a lodgement for occupation.
Although Russia has recently expressed its support for the One China policy, to actually participate in an exercise directed at Taiwan is a whole different matter, and one which Russia would be – very understandably – reluctant to involve itself in. The repurcussions to Russia’s relationship with the United States would far outweigh any benefits to its relationship with China.
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