Moscow Protests

The rallies attracted between 75,000 and 200,000 people in total, but no-one really knows for sure how many attended. With all the different claims and counter-claims out there, it really depends on who you believe.

In fact, both the organisers from each side claimed attendance of 100,000 plus. The Moscow Times reports that its journalists on the scene estimated a turnout of 50,000 at the opposition rallies and around 25,000 at the pro-Putin rally.

Anti-Putin rally

The opposition rally, which focused on calling for a re-run of December’s disputed parliamentary elections and on opposing Putin’s bid for the Presidency, seems to have been a relatively peaceful affair, with far fewer reports of arrests than at previous rallies.

Although two of the candidates in the March Presidential election were due to attend the rally, only one showed up in the end. Mikhail Prokhorov took part in the rally, although strangely for a politician, declined the opportunity to make a speech. Sergei Mironov, who had previously promised to attend eventually decided to stay away entirely.

The organisers will no doubt be pleased overall with the way things went. This weekend’s march demonstrates that the opposition seems to be maintaining its momentum and is capable of repeatedly pulling tens of thousands (a hundred thousand if you believe the organisers claims) of people out onto the snowy streets of Moscow. This will give continued heart to those who oppose Putin’s re-election bid, and may also provide food for thought for those from the establishment who hope that opposition might melt after the election season is over.

Pro-Putin rally

The copmpeting pro-Putin rally was also well attended, although perhaps not as well attended as its organisers would have you believe.

There has been a lot of speculation as to whether the pro-Putin rally was a spontaneous as the opposition rallies, and whether those who attended did so because they truly believed in Putin or because they were coerced into attending – an example of the latter is this report from RIA Novosti of a schoolteacher who was allegedly fired for not ensuring that staff at his school attended the rally.

According to a reporter for the New Yorker, it was a bit of both:

“There were, as expected, people who had been paid to come; people who came out because of a work-place ‘initiative’; people who were less than fluent in Russian; and people who were less than sober. But there were also a lot of people who actually support Putin, either because they see no alternative to him, or because they really do like him.”

Putin has professed himself as pleasantly surprised by the strength of feeling of those who took to the streets to support him. So pleased, in fact, that he has offered to pay the fine that will be levied on the organisers for organising a rally that attracted more people than was allowed by their permit.

It will be interesting to see if Putin’s supporters will be able to keep up their momentum in the coming month – and worth remembering that half-hearted pro-Government rallies in places like Egypt have actually ended up hurting the government’s cause more than they helped.

Duelling Rallies in Moscow is a post from: Siberian Light

Although both candidates claimed that they had obtained the 2 million signatures needed for a candidate from a party not represented in the Duma to secure a place on the ballot, the CEC said that more than 5% of each candidate’s signatures (the maximum allowed) were invalid. In Yavlinsky’s case, the CEC reported that almost a quarter of his signatures were invalid – mostly because they were on photocopied sheets.

The CEC confirmed that oligarch Mikhail Prokhorov – the third ‘independent’ candidate – did collect enough legitimate signatures and he will be entered onto the ballot.

Early Reaction

Grumpy Yavlinksy

As far as I can see, Mezentsev hasn’t made any public comment on the decision. Widely regarded as a technical candidate, there only to ensure that the election could go ahead if every other candidate withdrew, his exclusion is odd in some respects as it does mean that the election could technically not happen in the unlikely event that the other candidates agreed to pull out. On the other hand no-one is quite sure how a candidate such as Mezentsev, who had never been involved in national politics before, could have legitimately collected 2 million signatures in such a short period of time.

Although Mikhail Prokhorov will no doubt be pleased that he is now on the ballot, he also criticised the CEC’s decision, calling it “a blow to the legitimacy” of the election. Communist leader Gennady Zyuganov has also criticised the decision, calling it “illegal”.

As expected, Vladimir Putin hasn’t commented directly on the issue, but a Presidential spokesman told reporters that the exclusion shouldn’t affect the legitimacy, or the perceived legitimacy, of the election. “If one of the candidates failed to score the required number of votes, it shouldn’t give rise to claims about the illegitimacy of the election, even before the elections even took place.”

Beleagured CEC Chairman Nikolai Konkin has also defended the decision to exclude Yavlinsky and Mezentsev, resignedly telling reporters: “No politics here, just pure arithmetic.”

Who is left standing?

This week’s shakeup leaves just five candidates in the race to become Russia’s next President – Vladimir Putin (United Russia), Gennady Zyuganov (Communist), Sergei Mironov (A Just Russia), Vladimir Zhirinovsky (Liberal Democracts) and Mikhail Prokhorov (Independent).

The latest reported polling, from FOM shows that Putin remains the overwhelming favourite, with 45% support. Of the others, Zyuganov (11%) and Zhirinovsky (10%) look to be in a battle for the runner up spot and a possible second round runoff against Putin. Mironov and Prokhorov are both polling a disappointing 3%, leaving them battling for the wooden spoon.

Yavlinsky and Mezentsev barred from Russian Election is a post from: Siberian Light

Prokhorov, who with $18 billion to his name is Russia’s third richest man, plans to run as an independent candidate with no party backing and Yavlinsky plans to run as a candidate of the liberal Yabloko party. Both made announcements via their Facebook pages and both plan to submit the signatures they have collected to the Central Election Commission for inspection.

Complex approval process

Mikhail Prokhorov's Facebook announcement

To make the task even more difficult only a maximum of 50,000 signatures can come from a single Russian region, which means that 50,000 people must be found in each of at least 40 Russian regions.

Approval is by no means guaranteed, and the CEC has been accused in the past of using the difficult registration process as a way to block opposition parties from taking part in elections. Mikhail Kasyanov was denied entry into the last Presidential election because some of his signatures were deemed invalid and, as recently as last summer, the People’s Freedom Party was blocked from registering as an official political party for failing to collect enough valid signatures.

Both candidates are confident that their applications will be approved, though, and that they will be on the ballot come March. Given the increased scrutiny of this election, refusal to grant approval would be a PR disaster for the Russian Government.

Additionally, it’s looking increasingly likely that Putin will fail to reach the 50% threshold needed to win the election outright in the first round. The more candidates there are in an election, the better the excuse Putin’s team has for not securing a first round victory so, unless there are some blatant violations of electoral law, I think it’s unlikely that the CEC will take the risk of refusing to register either Prokhorov or Yavlinsky.

Campaigning begins in earnest

Putin's 2012 Presidential election campaign website

Vladimir Putin unveiled his manifesto on his putin2012.ru website earlier today. He seems to be playing the ‘steady hand in a storm’ card, playing on his previous successes and observing that while calls for revolution can be attractive, especially in Russia, they rarely have a positive outcome:

“A recurring problem in Russian history is the desire of a part of its elites to make leaps, to embrace revolution instead of sequential development. Not only Russian experience, but all world experience shows the fatal result of historic leaps: haste and subversion , without creation.”

Off less interest to the foreign observer, perhaps, Putin also promised that, if he is elected, he will improve education in Russia, create millions of new high tech jobs and eradicate poverty in Russia within a decade.

Mikhail Prokhorov, meanwhile, has turned his attention to negative campaigning. In an article for Russian newspaper RBK Daily, he accused the other Russian opposition parties of selling out Russian voters in their haste to accomodate Putin and United Russia. He added that they had “decided to ride the wave of public discontent and convert it for their gain, both politically and commercially.”

The Communist Party hit back with a well aimed below the belt jab of their own, suggesting that Prokhorov might want to explain just how he managed to acquire a personal wealth of $18 billion.

Finally, Vladimir Zhirinosky, the ever-youthful leader of the nationalist Liberal Democrats unveiled his upbeat campaign slogan today. “It’s Zhirinovsky or it will be worse”.

Prokhorov and Yavlinsky collect 2 million signatures needed to run for Russian President is a post from: Siberian Light

Key proposals include directly elected regional governors, making it much easier for new political parties to register for parliamentary and presidential elections, and a form of proportional representation in the State Duma.

Reform proposals

Proposals to increase participation in national elections seem the most interesting.

Medvedev specified that, in order to register for national elections, political parties will in future need to collect only 500 signatures, rather than the 40,000 currently required. Restrictions on candidates entering Presidential elections have also been reduced – instead of having to collect 2 million signatures to register, independent candidates will in future have to collect only 300,000 signatures and candidates representing registered but small political parties will have to collect just 100,000 signatures.

Dmitry Medvedev giving his final State of the Nation address

Although his supporters deny it, Medvedev’s proposed reforms are clearly aimed at lowering the tension in the country, and while they will never satisfy many, they are likely to attract some of the more moderate opposition to Putin and United Russia. They have already brought grudging praise from Vladimir Ryzhkov, a co-chairman of the unregistered People’s Freedom Party (Parnas), who told RIA Novosti that

“Of course, the president has heard society’s demands and made a step forward… He in particular admitted that deep political reform is required, that there should be a free registration of parties, single-member constituencies, direct election of governors and that the election commission formation systems should be changed.

These are all demands voiced at Bolotnaya Square. These are the most radical steps in many years,” he said, adding however that these were “half-measures.”

In my opinion these are certainly useful reforms, and to be welcomed. It’s important not to read too much into them, though. They will have no impact on the Presidential election scheduled for next March, and the next election run under these rules, assuming they are approved, is likely to be in 2016.

Response to protests

In a nod to this month’s protests about the recent Duma elections, Medvedev opened his speech by observing that all opinions were welcome and that he believed they were a sign of a healthy democracy. He explained that the Russian Government would “treat any criticism of state institutions and individual officials with the utmost attention and respect.” However, he also added a stern warning:

“Attempts to manipulate Russian citizens, to mislead them and incite social discord are unacceptable. We will not let instigators and extremists involve society in their reckless activities, and we will not allow foreign interference in our internal affairs. Russia needs democracy, not chaos.”

Foreign Affairs

There was little about foreign policy in Medvedev’s address. His key message was that Russia was open to dialogue with NATO on missile defence, but only if NATO took Russia’s concerns seriously.

“I only want to confirm that we are open for constructive dialogue and substantive work with our partners, if they learn to listen to us. We count on reciprocity in order to reach mutually acceptable solutions as soon as possible and to maintain an atmosphere of trust.”

To stop it looking as though Russia is entirely on the back foot in foreign affairs, Medvedev also talked up the Eurasian Economic Union, that Russia intends to create along with Belarus and Kazakhstan, calling it “an ambitious task” that would “act as a link in the European and Asia-Pacific regions”.

Here’s a video of the foreign policy section of Medvedev’s address.

As you can see, it was a very short section.

Government achievements

As with any state of the nation speech, Medvedev made sure to dwell on his Government’s achievements.

Russia’s economy is recovering nicely from the recent economic dip, he explained, noting that last year’s growth of 4% was far higher than most major economies, and that Russia’s inflation last year was the lowest since 1991. As a result, he said, unemployment had dropped by a staggering 2 million in the past two years – that’s a massive drop in such a short period, and it’s not clear how accurate a claim this is.

Unsurprisingly, given that we’re fast approaching an election, Medvedev took pains to spell out that, because of Russia’s good financial health, Russian social programmes would not face the same cuts as are being experienced elsewhere in Europe.

“We must continue living within our means, without squandering resources, especially in the conditions of an approaching global recession. But this does not mean that we must give up new social programs or cut existing obligations. All these obligations will be met in full.”

Russia’s demographic crisis of the past two decades seems to be reversing as well. Average life expectancy has increased by over three years since 2006 to an average of 69, and to 75 for women – no direct mention of the still low male life expectancy. More children are being born than in the past, and mortality rates have also dropped.

Full Transcript

If you want to read the full text of Dmitry Medvedev’s final State of the Nation address, you can find it on the Kremlin.ru website. As I write this it’s partly uploaded – the translators must be struggling to keep up with the workload, as it seems that a new chunk of the text is being uploaded every hour or so.

Medvedev promises reforms in his final State of the Nation address is a post from: Siberian Light

Webcams in every polling station

In his recent marathon TV interview, Vladimir Putin proposed placing webcams in every single polling station during March’s Presidential election. The proposal came in reaction to criticism that United Russia’s victory in the Duma elections was due to fraud – namely ballot stuffing.

And, today, Putin put a price on this proposal. According to RIA Novosti a staggering $470 million has been allocated to the task of putting a webcam in every single one of Russia’s 95,000 polling stations.

Great, some will say – spending so much money on blanket coverage webcams is a wonderful way of demonstrating Russia’s commitment to holding free and fair elections. Sceptics, such as myself, might take a moment to divide $470 million by 95,000 and wonder why Russia is spending $4,947 per webcam.

Old Warriors break out their Zimmer frames and stand for election

Gennady Zyuganov - fresh faced Presidential candidate

Almost all of the candidates for the Presidential election have now been nominated by their parties, and rather depressingly it will surprise no-one to discover that almost of them have contested at least one previous Presidential election.

• Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist Party candidate, has contested three of the last four Presidential elections, finishing second each time (always the bridesmaid…).
• Vladimir Zhirinovsky, the nationalist Liberal Democratic Party’s ageing standard bearer, goes one better by entering his fifth election.
• Grigory Yavlinsky, the Yabloko candidate, will be – assuming he collects the required 2 million signatures – entering the race for Russia’s top job for the third time. He stood for election in 1996 and 2000, so I guess he’s at least had a chance to take a break and recover his vitality.
• Sergei Mironov, who’ll be representing A Just Russia, is a relative rookie – he’s only taking part in his second election.

In fact, the only complete newcomer in the race* is independent candidate Mikhail Prokhorov – and that’s assuming that, like Yavlinsky, he manages to secure the 2 million signatures that any candidate who isn’t nominated by a Duma party needs to get to enter the race.

(* I’m assuming that Dmitry Mezentsev, the Irkutsk Governor who has agreed to stand as the emergency reserve candidate in the event that no-one else is eligible, isn’t actually going to appear on the ballot.)

Small candidates get kicked out

As was also expected, the fringe candidates are being rejected on technical grounds, one by one. Eduard Lminov, head of the Other Russia party is one notable victim – he was denied registration because he didn’t have the right papers, despite his novel approach of collecting signatures on the bus. Nikolai Levashov – the faith healer who cures people over the phone – was knocked back because he didn’t meet residency requirements, and Boris Mironov bit the dust because of a prior criminal conviction for extremism.

Looking on the bright side, each of these candidates has had their day or two in the media spotlight, and they’ve been saved the hassle of having to spend months on the buses trying to do the impossible and collect two million signatures. On balance, I suspect they’re rather glad the way things have turned out.

Russian Presidential Elections Roundup is a post from: Siberian Light

After his humiliating failure this summer – Prokhorov announced to great fanfare that he would turn Right Cause into a political force, and was then abruptly kicked out in an internal party coup – most had thought that he would step back and concentrate on his business interests, among them his ownership of the New Jersey Nets basketball team.

But instead Prokhorov has, in his own words, taken “probably the most serious decision in my life. I am running for president.”

However, I struggle to see how Prokhorov can gather the votes needed to finish second in this election, let alone to provide a serious challenge to Putin.

Where on earth is he going to get the votes from, for one thing? He’s certainly not going to take away many votes from Gennady Zyuganov (Communist) or Vladimir Zhirinovsky (nationalist), who each have a solid core of supporters. He could take some from Putin, but you have to assume that most of Putin’s supporters (the legitimate ones anyway) are voting for him because they’re pretty happy with him – so why would they vote for someone offering something different?

In fact, I’m not entirely sure that Prokhorov could even force his way onto the ballot. Because he is not piggy-backing onto a registered political party’s campaign, he will have to gather two million signatures just to get onto the ballot. That’s not an easy task – just ask Mikhail Kasyanov, who in 2008 reached the magic 2 million mark only to be told by the electoral commission that too many of the signatures were invalid. (As an aside, Andrei Bogdanov, head of a party that polled 0.13% in the previous Duma election, managed to reach 2 million signatures with no problems and enter the Presidential race, where he polled less than 1 million actual votes.)

Instead, I think Prokhorov is going to use this election to try to lay the groundwork for future success.

It may well be that Prokhorov has watched events unfolding over the past couple of weeks and spied an opportunity. Perhaps he is gambling that Putin’s weakness will be exposed by the current protests and that, in three months time, the Russian political landscape will be sufficiently confused to give a candidate like himself the opportunity to step in and offer an alternative vision with some credibility (and which does not, like Communist Party boss Gennady Zyuganov’s vision, scare both the voters and Washington).

What happens, for example, if Putin scrapes over the 50% mark in March, avoiding the need for a second round run-off only because he has the fraudulently fanatical backing of virtually every single person in Chechnya?

I think that’s a possible scenario, although a fairly unlikely one. And, even if it does come about, it’s almost certainly going to be Zyuganov in second place, not Prokhorov.

More likely, in my opinion, is that Prokhorov is positioning himself to become Russia’s next Prime Minister.

With Dmitry Medvedev badly wounded, a decent showing by Prokhorov in the Presidential election, particularly if he stays away from being *too* critical of the current Government, would give Putin thge opportunity to bring another ‘reformer’ into Government to balance his more conservative tendencies.

And, for Prokhorov, the role of Prime Minster would give him a platform from which to develop his own political ambitions and potentially to position himself as Putin’s heir apparent.

What do you think?

Mikhail Prokhorov: Russia’s next Prime Minister? is a post from: Siberian Light

Numbers are difficult to judge, but it appears that around 5-6,000 people protested earlier in the day, breaking off into a smaller group of around 1,000 that then went on to Triumfalnaya Square. It was there that most of the trouble took place, and according to RIA Novosti, more than 250 people were arrested, including Sergei Mitrokhin, Yabloko’s deputy chairman and former Prime Minister Boris Nemtsov.

“I am outraged at the lawlessness that we saw on 4 December, with the false elections, and on 5 December,” Mitrokhin told reporters. “I am ready to call for the entire government, headed by Putin, to resign.”

Navalny tweeted this picture, saying "With my lads on the police bus. They all say hi,"

Protests were also held in St Petersburg which attracted around 1,000 people, 150 of whom were arrested, and smaller protests were held in a number of other cities across the country.

The protests prompted counter-protests from pro-Kremlin activists, many from Nashi.

The protests, and criticisms of fraud throughout the election, have prompted some response from the Kremlin, albeit a pretty limited one. President Dmitry Medvedev has announced that there will be an investigation of accusations of electoral fraud claims, although he seemed fairly dismissive of most of the claims and took pains to stress that this was something that should be done after every election as a matter of procedure. Putin hasn’t directly commented on the protests, although he doesn’t seem surprised about protests and criticism if this Moscow Times report is anything to go by:

Corruption and embezzlement “are not a cliche for the ruling party, they are a cliche for the authorities” in general, Putin said.

“Think back to Soviet times and the people who were in power back then. All of them were also called thieves and bribe-takers,” Putin said, in a clear nod to United Russia’s reputation as the “party of crooks and thieves,” Interfax reported.

(An interesting choice, by the way, to compare United Russia’s Government to the Soviet Government. It’ll play well with those in the domestic audience who crave stability and familiarity, but it’ll wind up amny protestors and the foreign audience no end.)

Speaking of the foreign audience, there has been a quite excitable reaction from the international press, many of whom seem to be breathlessly hoping for a Russian Arab Spring (no longer do they refer to a colored revolution…) and choosing to focus on the crackdown and the sending of troops in to secure Moscow. My favourite headline was this, from the never knowingly under-stated Fox News: Carnage Breaks Out at Moscow Protests as Youths Square Off.

For all the hype, it’s almost possible to imagine that this week’s protests will build any real momentum. No matter how much breathless reporting we see, the protestors number no more than a few thousand in a city of millions.

However, the protests may have a longer term impact in raising the profile of election fraud among the wider population and in exposing some small cracks in the Kremlin’s resolve ahead of next year’s Russian Presidential election, which has the potential to be a much closer affair. You can imagine that there would be considerable anger if Putin were to pick up 51-52% of the vote in a first round ballot that sees the same obvious manipulation of ballots that we’ve seen this election in Chechnya and other similarly sycophantic regions.

The Communist Party’s candidate Gennady Zyuganov is most likely to finish second in the Presidential election. He and his supporters will have good reason to be very upset if he is denied a run-off due to electoral fraud. If Zyuganov has any sense, he’ll be closely studying these Moscow protests and thinking about how much impact they could have if they were backed by the full weight of the Russian Communist Party.

Then maybe the press will have something to get breathless (and even more confused than normal) over.

Moscow Protests: For now or the future? is a post from: Siberian Light

By and large, election observers felt that the ballot itself was run fairly across the country, BUT, there were a few ballots in which the results were just absurd. For example, in Chechnya, 93.31% of voters went to the polls (national average 60.2%) and 99.48% of voters chose United Russia (national average 49.54%).

Everyone knows that the result was fixed in Chechnya. It’s tempting to laugh this off as Chechnya being, well, Chechnya and to think that because it’s just a small part of Russia it doesn’t really impact on the election result. But then I noticed a few other abnormal results, and wondered what impact they had collectively on the election.

So, I decided to identify every region where United Russia took more than 80% of the vote, and turn that region into an entirely average region.

Here’s a list of all the regions where more than 80% of people voted for United Russia.

Chechnya – Turnout 93.31%, Voted for UR 99.48%
Mordovia – Turnout 90.58%, Voted for UR 91.62%
Dagestan – Turnout 78.64%, Voted for UR 91.44%
Ingushetia – Turnout 72.72%, Voted for UR 90.96%
Karachey-Cherkessia – Turnout 80.31%, Voted for UR 89.84%
Tuva – Turnout 70.68%, Voted for UR 85.29%
Kabardino-Balkaria – Turnout 90.91%, Voted for UR 81.91%

In total, 3.3 million people voted in these seven regions, and 3 million of them voted for United Russia. In total across the country, United Russia scored 32.8 million votes which means that these seven republics, representing less than 4% of the electorate, provided almost 10% of United Russia’s total votes.

United Russia secures 99.47% of the vote in Chechnya

If that happened, then only 1.4 million people would have voted for United Russia in these regions, bringing United Russia’s overall total down to 31.2 million nationally.

Which means that instead of getting 49.54% of the vote, United Russia would have got 47.12%.

Which I’m pretty sure isn’t enough for a majority in the Duma.

And, if replicated, might be the difference between a first round victory for Putin and being forced into a second round runoff in the 2012 Russian Presidential election.

Just sayin.

How United Russia stole victory is a post from: Siberian Light

As expected the Communist Party are second with 19.13% of the vote, which gives them almost twice as many votes as they received in the 2007 Duma elections.

The big surprise of the night, however, has been the performance of A Just Russia – with 13.18% they’ve sneaked ahead of the Liberal Democratic Party (11.66%) to become the third largest party in Russia. Polls have shown them with around 7% support over the past few months, so to get more than 13% is an impressive achievement.

No other parties secured the 7% of votes needed to secure proportionate representation in the Duma. Yabloko received 3.25% of the vote, just enough to secure free air-time at the next election, Patriots of Russia 0.96% and Right Cause 0.50%.

Infographic from RIA Novosti.

Reaction and the future for Putin and United Russia

The result will come as a real disappointment for United Russia, which has been luxuriating in a constitutional supermajority of more than 66% in the current Duma, and is a massive drop in support from the 64.3% of the vote it enjoyed in 2007. At one point, when it looked as though United Russia might not secure a majority in the Duma, there was talk of United Russia entering into coalition agreements with other parties. At a United Russia conference, President Dmitry Medvedev told delegates that:

“Given the more complex configuration of the State Duma, we will have to enter coalition agreements on separate issues. This is normal, this is parliamentarianism, this is democracy.”

It looks as though United Russia will have just about enough seats not to have to rely on coalitions, although its lead will be sufficiently fragile that it will need to worry about defections from the party reducing and potentially even eliminating its majority over the course of the next four years.

Vladimir Putin’s reaction has been rather muted. He is quoted in RIA Novosti as saying that the results “really reflect the situation in the country” and that they “allow for the steady development of Russia.” Canadian newspaper The Globe and Mail described him as looking “angry” as he criticised United Russia’s performance, saying that his party “has to bear some responsibility for the failures, as well as the successes for the past few years.”

Putin, of course, will have an eye on next year’s Presidential election because, if today’s result were replicated there, he would be forced into a second round ballot against Gennady Zyuganov, the Communist Party candidate. Given the widespread reduction in support for United Russia – which many believe is linked to Putin’s decision to stand again for the Presidency – this is not an unlikely scenario.

It will be interesting to see how the global press interprets the election in the wake of today’s results – I expect a mixture of stories proclaiming that this is the beginning of the end of the Putin era and stories explaining how democracy will now be stifled in Russia a Putin worried that democracy might cost him his job.

A fair reflection of public opinion, or a rigged election?

Today’s Duma election result shouldn’t be seen as a complete surprise. Over the past year, opinion polls have been reporting a steady drop in support for United Russia, and polls conducted just before the election showed United Russia having only around 55% support. To drop to around 50% in the actual election demonstrates only a 10% difference between the polls and the results, which is not something that would shame pollsters anywhere in the world.

From the perspective of the health of Russian democracy as a whole, the result seems fairly encouraging, and may well silence some critics who say that Russian democracy is entirely managed. That a regime that supposedly controls the ballot box secured less than 50% of the vote in a result that more or less mirrored the predictions of pollsters is quite difficult to imagine.

Early indications from international observers – including some from the OSCE and the European Parliament – is that they believe the polls were conducted freely and fairly. However, the election has not passed without controversy and reports of violations.

Independent (and US/European funded) election observers Golos reported more than 5,000 violations on a day in which their head was arrested briefly at Moscow’s Sheremetyevo airport; a number of big-name independent (read: critical of United Russia) websites, including Livejournal, Echo Moscow and Kommersant, were shut down entirely by hackers using Denial of Service attacks; a number of journalists, including a BBC cameraman were briefly detained, and hundreds of demonstrators were arrested in Moscow and St Petersburg for attempting to hold unsanctioned rallies (all have since been released).

And as is now traditional in Chechnya, the voters voted almost unanimously for the ruling party. The result there was 99.47% in favour of United Russia (pic via Twitter courtesy of Nils van der Vegte).

United Russia secures 99.47% of the vote in Chechnya

Russia’s leading liberal party, Yabloko, have announced that they intend to contest the results of the election. Their Chairman Sergei Mitrokhin told reporters that:

“Despite gross violations throughout the country, despite ballot stuffing, falsifications, we see that on the whole, Yabloko’s results are rather positive.”

Yabloko will be particularly upset by the results released from polling stations abroad, where they are the most popular party. In the United Kingdom, where more than 2,000 voted, Yabloko secured 41% of the votes, well ahead of the second placed Communists (19.7%) and ahead of United Russia whose 10.6% was only enough to secure fourth place. Similar results were seen among Russian ballots held elsewhere in Europe – in France, for example, Yabloko won again with 31.5%.

Russian Duma Election 2011: United Russia support slumps below 50% is a post from: Siberian Light

Results (even preliminary results) are not expected until late this evening and tomorrow. United Russia, the party led by Vladimir Putin, has slipped slightly in the polls recently and is expected to lose the constitutional supermajority that it currently holds – it is, however, still expected to win a comfortable majority of Duma seats.

The Communist Party is expected to take second place with around 20% of the vote, which will increase their number of Duma Deputies considerably. The only other party guaranteed to secure 7% plus of the vote required to enter the Duma is Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s populist Liberal Democratic Party of Russia, although there is a fair chance that Fair Russia will also sneak over the threshold. The other three parties contesting the election – Yabloko, Right Cause and Patriots of Russia – are unlikely to prove popular enough to secure 7% of the vote.

For a balanced view of each of the parties contesting the Russian Duma election in 2011, we recommend this BBC News article.

As I write (9:00AM GMT), the polls are just about to close in Vladivostok, where it is 8:00PM, but voting won’t be complete until the last polling station closes in Kaliningrad at 5:00PM GMT. Early turnout figures from the Russian Far East indicated that turnout is down slightly on the last election, but not by much, although the Central Election Commission is reporting that turnout overall might be slightly higher than in previous years.

There has been considerable debate about whether the election would be conducted in a free and fair manner. The Russian Government has confirmed that it will not hamper the activities of international election observers, and has confirmed that 650 observers, including some from the OSCE and the European Parliament, will be present today. So far, observers seem to be satisfied with the way that the poll is being conducted. Mateusz Piskorski, a Polish observer, told reporters:

“The group of observers linked to the network of non-governmental organizations, including deputies of European parliament, national parliaments, experts and political scientists, has visited 48 polling stations in several Russian regions and so far our colleagues have no critical remarks, and everyone says that the process is very transparent.”

However, the head of Golos (an independent election observer in Russia), was arrested briefly at Moscow’s Sheremetevo airport earlier this morning. Liliya Shibanova told reporters that her laptop had been confiscated because it contained “illegal software”, although noted that she had been released as soon as she had surrendered the laptop. Golos, who have been criticised in Russia for receiving funding from Europe and the United States, were fined the equivalent of $1,000 earlier this week by a Moscow court for violating election regulations and publishing opinion poll results less than five days before the election.

Additionally, a number of websites have also been downed by Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attacks this week. At the time of writing, as well as Golos, who we mentioned above, Echo Moscow, Kommersant and all of LiveJournal‘s blogs were inaccessible. Echo Moscow editor Matthew Ganapolsky is instead publishing news on his blog when it’s available and on twitter.

Once the official Russian Duma Election 2011 results are available, we’ll post them up here.

Russian Elections Today is a post from: Siberian Light