Comments on: Belarus reaches last minute deal with Russia over gas price http://siberianlight.net/belarus-reaches-last-minute-deal-with-russia-over-gas-price/ The Russia Blog Thu, 19 Apr 2012 13:30:39 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Andy http://siberianlight.net/belarus-reaches-last-minute-deal-with-russia-over-gas-price/comment-page-1/#comment-2952 Andy Wed, 03 Jan 2007 19:46:38 +0000 http://www.siberianlight.net/2007/01/02/belarus-reaches-last-minute-deal-with-russia-over-gas-price/#comment-2952 Belarus got the raw end of this deal. Their negotiators found themselves in a corner, wriggled this way and that but, in the end, were squashed by Russia's clout and Belarus' need to stay warm and keep its factories running. However, I personally don't have a major problem with the aspect of the deal that allows Russia to charge market rates. The majority of EU states, and the US I believe, think along similar lines, which is why Russia can take this approach. The only justification Russia can now have, in the eyes of the world for cutting off Belarus' gas supply is if Belarus can't pay its bills. And I can't see a problem with that - if I can't pay my own household gas bills, I would expect to go cold this winter. The distribution network sale is another matter entirely, though. Russia used undue influence to pressure Belarus into agreeing the sale, and I'm disappointed that Western governments haven't raised more of a fuss about this aspect of the deal. As for Russia using similar tactics on the EU - I think you've outlined in your comment exactly why Russia couldn't cut off gas supplies. The EU can fight back. Belarus can't. Belarus got the raw end of this deal. Their negotiators found themselves in a corner, wriggled this way and that but, in the end, were squashed by Russia’s clout and Belarus’ need to stay warm and keep its factories running.

However, I personally don’t have a major problem with the aspect of the deal that allows Russia to charge market rates. The majority of EU states, and the US I believe, think along similar lines, which is why Russia can take this approach.

The only justification Russia can now have, in the eyes of the world for cutting off Belarus’ gas supply is if Belarus can’t pay its bills. And I can’t see a problem with that – if I can’t pay my own household gas bills, I would expect to go cold this winter.

The distribution network sale is another matter entirely, though. Russia used undue influence to pressure Belarus into agreeing the sale, and I’m disappointed that Western governments haven’t raised more of a fuss about this aspect of the deal.

As for Russia using similar tactics on the EU – I think you’ve outlined in your comment exactly why Russia couldn’t cut off gas supplies. The EU can fight back. Belarus can’t.

]]> By: La Russophobe http://siberianlight.net/belarus-reaches-last-minute-deal-with-russia-over-gas-price/comment-page-1/#comment-2951 La Russophobe Wed, 03 Jan 2007 18:33:09 +0000 http://www.siberianlight.net/2007/01/02/belarus-reaches-last-minute-deal-with-russia-over-gas-price/#comment-2951 I think you've excessively minimized what Russia has done to Belarus's gas assets, which is essentially to steal them the same way it stole Shell's in the far East. This is an illustration of the fundamental corruption that permeates Russian society to the very highest levels of government, negating any real progress towards a civilized state. Meanwhile, the world continues to under-react, thus encouraging more outrage just as it did with Stalin and Hitler. What's more, I'm not sure Russia will lose any leverage when the gas price normalizes. Instead of threatening to raise prices, it can simply threaten to cut off supplies entirely. If it threatened Europe that way, it would impact a much bigger market and hurt Russia's bottom line, plus Europe could respond with economic warfare that could devastate Russia. But Belarus is totally alienated and cannot defend itself from such a move. On the other hand, the Kremlin has shown itself perfectly capable of simply killing any person who obstructs its desires. The real consolation is that one day Russia's oil and gas reserves will simply run out, and then Russia will be consigned to the dustbin of history . . . that's if it hasn't totally destroyed its social and political structures in the meantime, which is likely. I think you’ve excessively minimized what Russia has done to Belarus’s gas assets, which is essentially to steal them the same way it stole Shell’s in the far East. This is an illustration of the fundamental corruption that permeates Russian society to the very highest levels of government, negating any real progress towards a civilized state. Meanwhile, the world continues to under-react, thus encouraging more outrage just as it did with Stalin and Hitler.

What’s more, I’m not sure Russia will lose any leverage when the gas price normalizes. Instead of threatening to raise prices, it can simply threaten to cut off supplies entirely. If it threatened Europe that way, it would impact a much bigger market and hurt Russia’s bottom line, plus Europe could respond with economic warfare that could devastate Russia. But Belarus is totally alienated and cannot defend itself from such a move. On the other hand, the Kremlin has shown itself perfectly capable of simply killing any person who obstructs its desires.

The real consolation is that one day Russia’s oil and gas reserves will simply run out, and then Russia will be consigned to the dustbin of history . . . that’s if it hasn’t totally destroyed its social and political structures in the meantime, which is likely.

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