Armenian sources are reporting that Azerbaijan is moving its troops closer to Armenian positions, ratcheting up tensions in the Caucasus.
“They have been bringing their trenches closer to ours and more casualties are suffered as a result,” Oskanian told reporters. “We just don’t see the rationale for that and are starting to think that maybe they want to torpedo negotiations, maybe they have a serious intention to start military actions.”
The remarks are the starkest yet warning about a resumption of the Karabakh war voiced by a senior Armenian official since the signing of the May 1994 ceasefire agreement. They follow recent deadly skirmishes reported along the line of contact northeast of Karabakh. Each side blamed the other for the truce violations.
Blogrel has more on this story, including the following analysis.
It is difficult to say whether there is the possibility of renewed fighting over Karbagah especially when the Azerbaijani military is still considered to be weaker and not as well trained as that of the combined forces of Armenia and Karabagh. Others such as Samuel Babayan, in an interview with Aravot and quoted by RFE/RL’s Press Review, do not rule out the possibility of renewed conflict in the future. [...]
Interestingly, while there does indeed to be increased pressure to find a solution to the conflict, it can’t be ruled out that Azerbaijan’s posturing is an attempt to push the international community to pressurize Yerevan into making more concessions than those offered at Key West and also, to appease public opinion in the run-up to the November Parliamentary Elections.
I’d add that domestic concerns are probably also weighing heavily on the minds of the Azeri government. Anti-government protests took place in early March, and more are planned for April. Following recent events in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan, the government is likely more than a little jumpy right now, and is likely to be looking for things to distract people from thoughts of corruption and regime change. A war – or even just the prospect of a war – can do wonders to unify a country behind its leaders.
If this is Azeri government is banking on this reaction though, they may actually find their gamble backfires on them. If the opposition decides to oppose any war and people unite behind them instead, the current government would be finished.
{ 1 comment }
Another consideration here is, what will the U.S. think? What are the Americans likely to do?
The United States in is the market for more oil. Our economy runs on oil. An unstable region is not a good place to get oil from. An Azeri-Armenian war means an unstable region. If Azerbaijan does instigate hostilities you could well see a U.S. backed opposition taking action against the Azeri government. Perhaps leading to the end of that government and the installation of a new one. One more open to American initiatives.
Comments on this entry are closed.